b'Chinas average tariff rate is climbing on US goods and falling for the rest of the worldDec. 15Tariff increase on some U.S. products (subset of $75 billion) and re-imposition of suspendedretaliatory tariffs on autos and parts2019 Sept. 1Aug. 23 Sept. 24 Tariff increase on some Retaliation for U.S.Retaliation for U.S.June 1 U.S. products (subset of25.9 %Section 301 tariffs Section 301 tariffsTariff increase on$75 billion)($16 billion) ($60 billion) some U.S. products (subset of $60 billion) 21.8 %July 6 20.7 % On U.S. Retaliation for US Section% 18.2 % goods2018 July 1 301 tariffs ($34 billion) 18.3MFN cut on consumer 16.5 %Apr. 2 May 1 goods, autos, ITA productsRetaliation for U.S.MFN cut on14.4 % Nov. 1 Jan. 1Section 232 tariffs pharmaceuticals MFN cut onSuspension of retaliation for U.S. industrial goods Section 301 tariffs agains autos and 8.4 % 8.3 % 10.1 % parts; temporary MFN rates for 20198.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 7.2 %Jan. 1 6.9 % 6.7 % 6.7 % 6.7 %On the rest of theTA = Information Technology Agreement; MFN = most favored nation worlds goodsINote: Trade-weighted average tariffs computed from product-level tariff and trade data, weighted by US exports to the world in 2017.Sources: Updated on August, 23, 2019, from Bown, Jung, and Zhang (2019). Constructed by the author with data from Trade Map and Market Access Map (International Trade Centre, marketanalysis.intracen.org) and Chinas Ministry of Finanaces announcements.at 4.54 billion bushels, according to the U.S. Department ofWe can recapture sizeable growth here, Countryman says, Agriculture (USDA), with an average yield of 56.1 bushels peradding that the beef, pork, dairy and wheat sectors will all ben-acre. This year, production predictions are down, and as of Sept.efit. Japan is critically important, and it looks like we are making 30, USDA pegged stocks at 913 million bushels. progress.If the demand side of the equation was there, Grant says oneOn the flipside, Countryman also voices concern over the U.S. might see some acreage and production growth in favor of soy- approach to trade.beans in 2020, but thats not likely. This power-based approach is the most aggressive weve Taking into account that China has bettered its infrastructureseen in more than a decade, she says. Its creating uncertainty and improved feeding rations, coupled with the potential devas- in trade and markets.tation to the pork industry from African Swine Fever, one couldShe explains that it worked to some extent with Mexico, but argue China will be forced to import more U.S. pork and soy. the country relies on its northern neighbor for nearly 80% of its Glauber adds while this might be good for U.S. pork exports,exports. its not for soybean exports.Other countries, Countryman says, are looking to diversify If African Swine Fever hits China like expected, it could wipeaway from U.S. purchases as a means to protect themselves.out 30-40% of the countrys herd, Glauber says. This would meanThis negatively impacts U.S. agriculture moving forward, the United States and Brazil will be fighting over a smaller China. she says.On the upside, Countryman points out that the U.S.-Mexico- Grant adds that where the United States was once the leader Canada Agreement will create additional market access forwhen it came to free trade agreements, we now lag.agriculture. The European Union has 12 new early notifications registered; The biggest win here for agriculture is eliminating the milkthe United States has one, he shares. This really worries me .pricing systems and getting Canada to open up some of its pre- What the United States needs is to see Chinese tariffs at 3%; viously closed sectors, she says. thats what has driven commercial growth. Farmers want com-Additionally, she points to the bilateral trade agreement withmercial trade, not government entities and commitments.SWJapan as the holy grail for the United States.DECEMBER 2019SEEDWORLD.COM /13'