b"Feeding an800-Pound GorillaChinas soaring sorghum demand gives U.S. growers profitable production option.Barb Baylor AndersonCHINA HAS ANinsatiable demand for some agriculturalChinas announcement of tariff exclusions following the products. More and more, that shopping list includes Phase One agreement had an immediate impact on U.S. sor-sorghum. Purchases are fueled by the U.S.-China Phase Oneghum exports mainly because of the sheer volume China trade agreement and continued hog herd rebuilding and cornpurchases and its effect on prices, according to the USDA FAS deficit in the country.report. As of early-July, U.S. sorghum commitments to the world Turns out, that is good news for U.S. sorghum producers.had more than doubled the entire volume of 2018-19 and were China purchases more sorghum than the rest of the world com- headed to the record 2017-18 level. Most were slated for China. bined, and 85-90% of it comes from United States. That helps keep U.S. sorghum production profitable in an otherwise toughSorghum Exports Fuel Price Strengtheconomic environment. Exports have always been a large part of the U.S. sorghum China creates a major impact for the U.S. sorghum industrymarket portfolio, notes Lopez. Exports have represented about and its farmers, confirms Florentino Lopez, executive directorone-third of total sorghum demand, although that has been for the United Sorghum Checkoff Program. moving up over the last five to seven years. Of the 358 million USDAs Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports the U.S.bushels produced in the United States last growing season, has been the top sorghum exporter to China since 2013-14, whenUSDA estimated more than 260 million were slated for export. China began replacing some of its corn purchases with sorghum.USDA most recently forecast Chinas total imports of sor-Most U.S sorghum heads to southern China to fill feed demandghum at 240 million bushels for 2020-21 up from about 154 mil-for the hog industry. lion in 2019-20. While the United States is the top supplier, China Sorghum saw positive growth in Chinese exports from 2011also imports sorghum from other countries, such as Argentina until about 2018, when the industry experienced a major setbackand Australia.due to the China-initiated antidumping and countervailing dutiesWhen exports were limited by trade actions in 2018, most (AD/CVD) cases, says Lopez. After those cases passed andU.S. sorghum remained in the domestic market for feed and trade relations improved, sorghum has again seen substantialfuel use. Plentiful corn and slowing ethanol demand dampened increases in exports to China. We expect this year exports willsorghum demand at that time and increased ending stocks to represent more than 75% of all U.S. sorghum marketing. their highest in 13 years, according to USDA FAS. The return of China in March 2020 virtually erased those extra stocks, and Stepped Up Sorghum Trade Deal higher cash bids at the Gulf compared to interior bids have Bigger export interest has accelerated with the Phase Onereflected higher exports.trade agreement signed earlier in 2020. The deal requires ChinaProspects for U.S. sorghum exports could pressure domes-during the current marketing year to buy $32 billion more intic sorghum use to the lowest level since 2014-15, according to U.S. ag goods as compared to purchases in 2017 of $19.5 billion.Stephen Nicholson, senior grain and oilseed analyst with Rabo Chinas imports of U.S. ag products have been growing over theAgriFinance. Sorghum purchases offset Chinas loss in corn last 15 years and reached more than $120 billion in 2018. production and also their deficit in corn. They're going to use Shortly after signing the pact, China waived retaliatory tariffssorghum and rice and wheat as substitutes for corn, he says.on several ag products, including sorghum. U.S. sorghum isEven so, Lopez points out that China had purchased roughly attractive because it does not face quarantine or biotech issues394 million bushels of corn as of October 2020, reflecting the that can slow trade. Several record-setting weekly purchasecountry's overall need for coarse grains. commitments have been made in 2020. Given these corn purchases and the tremendous demand 98/ SEEDWORLD.COMDECEMBER 2020"