b'World Trade May Profoundly Change; Companies Should Think AheadIN THE LAST COUPLEof weeks all attention,the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body, understandably, has been focused on combating thethreatens to pull out of the Government Procurement COVID-19 pandemic. But in the EU, other policies areAgreement and to block the WTO budget, and dreams also put on the rails. The European Commission hasopenly of going back to a retrograde dispute settle-published a series of important strategy papers, outlin- ment system where decisions can only be made when ing its key policies until 2024 and even beyond: theboth parties agree. All these steps affect the essence social policy; the digital, data and artificial intelligenceof the WTO.strategies; the Green Deal and the climate law; theAlthough the choice of policies of the United States industrial, SME and Internal Market strategies; the cir- is questionable, the underlying analysis is not. The cular economy plan. They represent a comprehensivesystem of the WTO is based on the market economy, WINAND QUAEDVLIEG agenda, ambitious and highly relevant for business,and cannot accommodate an economic giant like Winand Quaedvliegembodying the added value which the EU intends toChina, with its state-dominated economy and unjusti-is head of theprovide to companies and citizens facing the big chal- fied claim to the privileges of a developing country. In Brussels Office oflenges of our time.the actual situation, the United States and the EU are the Confederation ofThese challenges are all linked to four interrelatedunilaterally supporting the emergence of its competi-Netherlands Industrymegatrends: the re-politization of the world economy,tor of tomorrow. The United States wants China or to and Employersthe diminishing technological lead and comparativeadapt to the system, or to no longer enjoy its benefits.VNO-NCW and theadvantage of the West visvis the rest of the world,The EU of late has also chosen a much tougher Royal Netherlandsthe rapid emergence and spread of disruptive tech- approach to China. It labeled China a strategic rival Association of Smallnologies, and widespread discontent in our societies.and insists that intellectual property theft, forced and Medium-sizedAnd actually of course another challenge, slumberingtransfer of technology, closing off markets for invest-Enterprises MKB- for many years and almost disappeared from our radarments and government procurement, state subsidized Nederland.screen, demands our full attention again: the risk ofstrategic foreign direct investment, distortive behavior pandemics, this time in the form of COVID-19. of state-owned enterprises or individual imports on a The new Commission agenda is shaped by a sharpmega-scale that go largely unchecked, are no longer awareness that every question of substance confront- acceptable.ing the EU is related to the triangular relationshipIt is too early to say what will be the outcome of the U.S.-China-EU. If the EU wants to remain a player inwrestling party of giants that is actually taking place the world, instead of becoming just a playing ball forin the arena of world trade. But it is fairly certain that the other two big actors, it has to assert itself, and veryworld trade will profoundly change due to the emer-quickly. The Commission therefore rightly characterizesgence of a deals-based approach, the need to become itself as a geopolitical Commission. carbon neutral, the push for decoupling of technology The re-politization of the world economy, and thecommunities, the threat of pandemics, the demand for struggle of the EU to position itself, is most visible inmore strategic autonomy and the resistance in society the domain of world trade. The rules-based multilateralagainst delocalization. The era of the stable, multilat-system shaped and led by the United States after theeral rules-based system guaranteed by an undisputed Second World War, which shielded trade from unduehegemon may have come to an end. Companies political interference and brought worldwide hugeshould be actively thinking ahead what consequences benefits, is increasingly paralyzed and dismantled bythis may entail. SW its onetime hegemon. The United States has disabled 88/ SEEDWORLD.COMSEPTEMBER 2020'