b'S T R A T E G YLa Nia conditions arethan average in March and LA NIA VS EL NIOcreated when tropical PacificApril but should reverse to Ocean winds push warmabove rainfall in May. La Nia is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of El Nio-Southern Oscillation surface water westwardCurrent analysis shows(ENSO) and El Nio as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface toward Indonesia. This move- that the Midwest is likely ment allows colder water toto experience substantialtemperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on swell to the surface along theincreases in both annual andglobal weather and climate. Source: The National Ocean Service.west coast of South America.seasonal temperatures and During a La Nia year, winterextreme heat events. Seasonal temperatures are warmer thanand yearly temperatures are normal in the Southeasternexpected to increase over the U.S. and cooler than normalnext century.in the Pacific Northwest.Over the next few decades, Conversely, typical El Nioincreases in individual states effects include warmer-than- temperatures in the order average temperatures overof 2.4-2.8F are likely. The western and central Canada,number of days with tempera-and over the western andtures below freezing (32F) is northern United States. Drier- projected to decrease up to 3 than-average conditionsto 8 weeks by the end of the dominate in the Ohio Valleycentury, depending on emis-and the Pacific Northwest.sion assumptions. For winter precipitation,As climate changes, pre-the two models display lesscipitation patterns over the confidence. Nonetheless,Midwest are also expected most regions in the Unitedto change. These changes States can expect typical Larange from shifts in seasonal Nia influence.According todistributions to changing weather prediction maps fromproportions of rain vs. snow. the National Oceanic andAlthough relatively little Atmospheric Administrationchange in annual average (NOAA), there are indica- precipitation is expected, tions for drier than normalrelatively large seasonal varia-rainfall in California andtions are likely. More precipita-the Southeastern Unitedtion will fall as rain and less asall states can expect no moreand price standpoint. States. Conditions duringsnow, particularly in southernthan an average of 20 snowMy personal bias is that the March-April-May plant- Midwest states and towardsdays per year.we will not go back to where ing season in the Midwest arethe end of the century, whenTaken together, La Nia,we were anytime soon, maybe expected to be near normal.reductions of 30 to 50%global grain production, U.S.in more than a year, Sauder The central plains states andin annual snow days areelection results and COVID-19concludes. Last year was some sections in the centralexpected under lower emis- are stirring the tea leaves anda great example of farmers Corn Belt can expect slightlysions, and 45 to 60% underclouding the 2021 outlook.postponing their cropping below average precipitation.higher. By the end of the cen- How will this conclude? Itdecisions as long as possible. Conditions in the southeasterntury, the U.S. Global Changeis unknown how this will allI expect more of the same states are expected to be drierResearch Program anticipatesdevelop from a grain demandgoing into 2021. SWENDORSED BY 50/ SEEDWORLD.COMSEPTEMBER 2020'