b'in the coming years. In fact, he says its unlikely the world population will even hit 9 billion at all. Instead, he says, it will top out at around 8.5 billion in 2030 before it begins to decline. And the decline will not stop.Germination: In agriculture its commonly believed that we are headed for a world of 9 billion by 2050, and it will keep growing after that. Even the U.N. tells us this. Why are you so confident in your numbers?Darrell Bricker (DB): Were getting better at measuring what people do, how they go through the process of living their lives. The decisions that have been made that are going to shape the future have already been made by your grand- Bricker predicts that instead of a population boom in 2050, the globe might experience a parents, your parents, and now you. Thepopulation bust, where the population will top out at 8.5 billion by 2030.consequences of those decisions are apparent. Demographics are like glaciershas massive implications for everythingtancy in the past century. Were gettingyou can see them coming from a longfrom how long we will live to the size ofbad at making new people and getting way off. What we are going to be seeingfamilies. Basically, people are living longerreally good at keeping existing people and experiencing will define the globaland having fewer children when they livealive. In 1920, the average Canadian agricultural marketplace, and all otherin the city. In Canada we now have morelived to be in their 50s. Today, its 81. By marketplaces too. people over 65 than under the age of 50. 2036, life expectancy will be 87. Kids born today can expect to live to be 100 if Germination: So even the U.N. isGermination: That brings us tomedical science keeps progressing, and it wrong? fertility. Why do people have fewerassuredly will.DB: The U.N. actually has had three dif- children in cities?ferent population projections. The oneDB: As urbanization continues, in mostGermination: Why is this important you always read about is the middle oneparts of the world, the birth rate is fallingfor industry to consider?that predicts a continuing rise in globalto replacement rate or lower. That meansDB: When I think of agriculture, I dont population, over 9 billion by 2050 and asmost places in the worldnamely eve- think of young people. I think of older many as 10.9 billion by 2100. The num- rywhere except sub-Saharan Africa andpeople. Thats the market you should be bers I talk about are closer to what theIndiawill see their populations peakgoing after. Millennials and members of U.N.s lowest estimate is. We will peak atand then begin to decline. Just take aGen Z, in general, have no money. Theyre 8.5 billion people and finish the 21st cen- look at your own family. How many kidshaving a hard time starting their lives. tury with the same number of people wedid your grandparents have? How manyHalf of all Canadians age 18-35 live with have today. We will not have a world ofdid your parents have? How many dotheir parents, some because they have to 10.9 billion to feed. We wont even have 9you have or plan to have? And how manytake care of their parents because theyre billion to feed. kids do you think your kids will have?living so long. Houses are hard to find In most places in the world, youll get anot because there are too many people Germination: Why is that? similar answer. On the farm, having lots ofout there, but because the older people DB: Three main reasons: urbanization,kids means more hands to milk the cowswho live in those homes arent moving fertility and aging. U.N. stats tell us thatand harvest the crops. In cities, childrenout. Theyre aging in place. Grandma and in 1960, a third of us lived in a major city. although we love them dearlyare agrandpa are very happy to stay in their Today it is 56%. Thats going to continueliability.home well into their golden years. This to rise as people move from the country- has many implications for the entrepre-side to the city. We see this every day asGermination: How does agingneurs out there.rural communities across the country dieinfluence this predicted population off. Most people are moving to the city,decline? Germination: Like what?and its happening all over the world. ThisDB: We have doubled human life expec- DB: During COVID-19 people have been 22/ SEEDWORLD.COMSEPTEMBER 2020'