b'Lutz noted that after the awareness phase came, the pantrynormal manner, still were hunkered down, he says. As econo-loading phase followed, which quickly moved into what he notesmies in various states begin to reopen more and more, theres as the Easter Flip, time period.still going to be this kind of pullback and consumers will be We simply call it Easter Flip because when you look intotaking a wait-and-see attitude.the year ago data, you always have to account for Easter weekBut its been a real vegetable phenomenon, as Lutz said.sales, he said. Its a fairly large week for supermarkets, so when- Vegetables were up 28.5%, Lutz said. Look at the ingredi-ever you are looking at year ago data, you have to account forent items: bell peppers, mushrooms, potatoes, broccoli, onions when Easter hits in first quarter.all with 30% increases in dollars and volume over the previous Finally, what they believe is the new baseline describes thedays. In the pantry loading period, potatoes, for the first time Ive time period from the first of May to the date of the presentation,seen in recent history, outsold packaged salads.June 2, 2020.But the question both come back to: what are the real impacts of COVID-19 on retail?What we think is that consumers will continue to act and shop and prioritize differently in the same ways they did during the Great Recession, Lutz said. Consumers change how they shop, they change where they shop, and they redefined discre-tionary key food attitudes.Theyll look for the safest, healthiest foods possible, he con-tinued. Theyll look for staple foods, comfort foods and theyll stretch trip frequency out to try and stretch their dollar. Above all, quality always comes into play because if you have fewer dol-lars, you cant afford to take chances.COVID-19 Disrupts the Supply ChainDuring the Economic Outlook of the Seed Industry: Field Crops session, two experts joined the discussion to present some of In this graph, the red spikes represent fruit sales, while the greenthe challenges facing both farmers and the industry during spikes represent vegetable sales. Particularly highlighted on thisCOVID-19: John Newton, chief economist of American Farm graph are two spikes in red, which represent Fourth of July, theBureau Federation and Seth Meyer, research professor and single largest sales week for fruits in supermarkets every year, andassociate director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research two spikes in green, which note Thanksgiving, the largest vegetableInstitute at the University of Missouri. sales date of the year.At the beginning of the year, Newton said there was some opti-mismwith the phase one deal with China signed in mid-January, From the graph above, its easy to see both the largest pointswith USMCA moving forward this year and with the U.S.-Japan of data from fruits and vegetable sales: for fruits, its Fourth oftrade agreement, it seemed like we were rounding third base and July, while for vegetables, its Thanksgiving. However, as the pan- coming home with restoring loss of demand in our export markets. demic hit, there was a noticeable shift.Meyer agreed with Newton and said that we were in a record year There was an unprecedented shift in salestheres no timefor corn harvested, which gave us a general rebound in production in the last five years, maybe even 20 years, where vegetable salesin comparison to 2019s prevent plant acres.in retail exceed fruit, Lutz said. There may be individual weeksThere was a big rebound in acreage for both corn and where it is higher than fruit, but as a total, the highest week forbeans, Meyer said. We probably recovered most of that addi-vegetables is never higher than the highest week of fruit. tional prevent plant last year.Lutz noted that when the pandemic hit, vegetables screamedAt the outset, we thought 2020 was going to be a race by fruit and set a sales record.Because of this, Lutz says thatbetween supply and demand, Newton said. And if demand they saw that consumers didnt know how to respond to theaccelerates as we hoped it would, we thought wed finally see pandemic.commodity prices turn a corner. Maybe people were going out and buying toilet paper, heNewton said that they were hopeful demand and export mar-said. But other than that, it was really: Well, what do I do? Howkets would lead to higher prices. do I respond? We needed it, he said. Were in the eighth year in a down Looking at the retail sales, it was near impossible to tell whatfarm economy. Weve seen a 30% decline in net cash income, was flying off the shelves, Brohimer said. and that rivals what we saw after World War II when we had a Brohimer noted that even when certain areas of the United30% decline. Many people like to compare where we are today States began to openin this case, they looked at Georgiaswith the 1980s, where we saw a 45% decline in net cash income reopening processthere wasnt a dramatic spike to go out andover an eight-year period.spend money.Then, in March, COVID-19 threw a wrench into some of the Consumers, even when they had the option to act in a morehopes of a better economic outlook. 10/ SEEDWORLD.COMSEPTEMBER 2020'