b'Countries with increasing populations and expanding middle classes are going toneed more food and fuel, and corn can help meet that demand. Andrew SwansonGlobal Partnership & Competition: Brazil on the Rise just trade negotiation tactics where Mexico is trying to get more While corn\'s sheer scale in the agricultural sector is impressive,favorable terms for the next time they negotiate the U.S., Mexico its role is not static. Domestic demand for corn remains strong,and Canada agreementor it could be a real issue. but U.S. corn growers face increasing competition pressure forTo maintain its leadership in corn exports, Swanson asserts the 15-20% of U.S. corn production that hits international mar- that the U.S. should look beyond traditional markets and explore kets.new opportunities in developing regions. As populations grow in Brazil, which annually produces approximately five bil- oceanic and pacific regionsnamely the Philippines, Indonesia lion bushels of corn, has emerged as a formidable competitor.and Indiademand for corn-based products is expected to rise.Though it only produces about one third as much corn as the"These growing, younger economies present a big opportu-U.S., Brazil in 2019 and 2022 surpassed the U.S. in corn exports.nity for U.S. farmers," Swanson explains. "Countries with increas-Swanson says Brazils success is largely due to favorable tradeing populations and expanding middle classes are going to need agreements, particularly with China. more food and fuel, and corn can help meet that demand."Historically, China was a top buyer of U.S. corn, importing billions of bushels each year to feed its growing population ofCharting Corns Futurenow 1.41 billion. However, the U.S.-China trade war, which beganWith a massive crop expected this year, prices may remain sup-in 2018, significantly altered this dynamic. Tariffs imposed bypressed, but its important to note that the corn market is both both countries led to higher costs and disruptions in trade. Thisglobal and volatile. Weather disruptions in Brazil or China could opened the door to Brazil, from which China imported over 80%quickly change U.S. corn producers outlooks and incomes. of its corn in 2022."With such a large crop, prices are dropping, making global "Brazil and China have worked out trade deals that havemarkets essential," Swanson explains. If Brazil faces crop issues, allowed Brazilian corn to flow into China more easily," Swansonit could create new export opportunities for us as well. explains. In contrast, U.S.-China tensions have put pressure onOne of the bigger global market impacts could be Chinas trade relations, creating new challenges for U.S. corn exporters.own corn production. Extreme weather from heat waves to floods has impeded Chinas production this year. Bloomberg pre-Looking Beyond China dicts output this year could drop by between five- and 20-million Looking forward, it is critical that the U.S. agricultural valuetons, leaving a gap that U.S. corn might have opportunity to fill. chain explores new markets and strengthen trade relationshipsLooking ahead, U.S. farmers will need to stay nimble, adapt to beyond traditional partners like China. Swanson says the real- global trends and embrace new technologies to stay competitive ity is "our exports havent grown much in the past 20 years,"in an increasingly crowded field. Swanson believes that tech-despite growing production.nological advancements, domestic demand and opportunities On a positive front, the U.S. maintains strong trade relation- for biofuels will keep driving growth. He also remains optimistic ships with multiple other regions, particularly Japan andforabout improving trade relations with China and exploring new now Mexico, which buys roughly 25% of U.S. corn exports, heexport opportunities. says. Long term, adapting to shifts in the global economy will be However, that relationship is facing rocky waters due tokey and recognizing areas for expansion and growth in new and Mexicos concerns with genetically engineered corn. existing markets present exciting potential for U.S. corn produc-Thats up in the air right now, Swanson says. It could beers to thrive in the years ahead, he says.SW22/ SEEDWORLD.COMDECEMBER 2024'