b'The Global Seed Market at a Turning PointTHE GLOBAL SEEDindustry is at a pivotal moment,In the next 10-20 years, we expect the Chinese seed with a market value soaring to approximately $54industry to be unrecognizable from its current state, billion in 2023an impressive 3.5-fold increase sincewith significant implications for the global seed market 1996. This growth is largely driven by the rise of geneti- as competitive Chinese companies expand internation-cally modified (GM) seeds, which now represent almostally. No clear pathway for international seed players for 50% of the market despite covering only 18% of theForeign Direct Investment in China for GM traits and global planting area. key crops would create a challenge to benefit from GM Seeds are a highly R&D-intensive sector, with lead- commercialization in the country.ing global companies investing an average of 14% of their sales in research and developmentsignificantly BY BHARTI MALHOTRA,higher than other areas of the agri-food chain and Senior Analyst, Cropcomparable to the pharmaceutical industry. Over theThe Asia-Pacific region is particularly Science, Agribusinesspast three decades, a total of 137 GM traits have been at S&P Globalintroduced across 12 crops, with corn leading the way,noteworthy, with significant developments Commodity Insights. accounting for 52% of these innovations.in China, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Rising seed prices have primarily fueled market growth, reflecting the value added to farmers throughBangladesh and Australia.innovative traits that enhance income. An analysis of U.S. GM seed prices from 1996 to 2022 reveals a consistent upward trend, though a notable decline between 2014 and 2018. This slump was primarily due to a lack of new trait introductions in cotton. SinceInnovation through GM technology and NBTs will 2021, seed prices have risen again, mainly driven bydrive growth in established markets like North America new trait introductions, increased commodity prices,and South America, as well as in emerging markets in and higher farmers income.the Asia-Pacific region, despite ongoing uncertainties The introduction of new GM crops and the adop- in Europe. Harmonization of regulations at the global tion of GM technology in emerging markets will belevel is crucial for NBTs to effectively contribute to crucial for sustaining growth. The Asia-Pacific region isseed market growth, as disparities can hinder technol-particularly noteworthy, with significant developmentsogy adoption. S&P Globals analysis of countries with in China, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, BangladeshNBT regulatory frameworks reveals that 68% of the and Australia. China is shifting its stance on GM tech- countries regulate these techniques as conventionally nology, with traits for corn and soybeans expected tobred, adhering to a definition that excludes transgenes. be introduced soon. By 2024, Chinas GM pilot area isHowever, inconsistencies in terminology among these estimated to increase 150% over [2023], reaching 1.6countriessuch as cisgenesis, SDN1, and SDN2million acres. remain a challenge that needs to be addressed. SWThe commercialization of GM seeds could signifi-cantly enhance their value and lead to a transformativeEditors Note: This column summarizes a presenta-shift in the Chinese seed industry, similar to changestion at the 2024 Seed Congress of the Americas. We seen in the United States during the late 1990s andshortened it for print. Read the entire column at https://early 2000s. Chinese companies are heavily involved inwww.seedworld.com/latam/2024/10/13/global-seed-NBT research, accounting for about one-quarter of themarket-update-soaring-growth-gm-seeds-china-and-700+ traits in the industry pipeline. whats-ahead/. 104/ SEEDWORLD.COMDECEMBER 2024'