b'ASTA CEO Andy LaVigne chats with AgResource Company economist Dan Basse after Basses economic update. metric tons of corn and soybeans each year. Thats the equiva- the United States, he lamented. The last three years, that hasnt lent of 750 to 900 million bushels annually, without a weatherhappened. This year, its estimated at a $42.5 billion trade deficit.problem. Chinas diversification of suppliers, particularly its reliance on Brazil for corn and soybeans, has dealt a significant blow. Bassee Economic Challenges for U.S. Farmers suggested that Chinas boom is over.Turning his attention to the U.S., Basse painted a sobering pic- Brazil has now taken the crown as the largest seller of com-ture.modity goods to China, Basse said. Our estimate is somewhere When I look at the price of corn and soybeans in Chicagoaround $43 billion.today, its below the cost of production. Farmers are going toMeanwhile, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and struggle, he said, noting that rising government debt furtherSouth Africa) are gaining economic clout. Their combined GDP compounds the issue. We are now increasing debt by a trillionis now 32%, surpassing the G7, Basse explained. These coun-dollars every 100 days. The United States is on its way to $42 tril- tries also own 42% of the worlds oil and are stockpiling gold. This lion in debt by 2027. duopoly is reshaping global dynamics.Basse highlighted declining farm income as a major concern. This is going to be the worst year for net margins sinceThe Road Ahead2005, he warned. Farmers are looking at Chicago, theyre look- Basse left the audience with a series of pressing questions about ing at their costs, and theyre trying to decide where they canthe future of agriculture. trade down or cut back. What can turn the grain cycle? he asked. One thing would Despite these challenges, optimism among farmers hasbe Mother Nature. Global weather is something that is far from surged following the recent U.S. presidential election. Thecertain, and were facing the warmest year on record in 2024.ag barometer from Purdue and the CME skyrocketed, BasseHe also pointed to the imbalance between commodity and noted. Farmers are the most optimistic theyve been since theequity markets. pandemic of 2020. Its called President Trump. Every responseCommodities are too cheap, or stock prices are too high, he indicated that their confidence in the U.S. farm economy took asaid. Somethings going to give in the next three or four years, big leap forward. and Im not quite sure which.With cautious optimism, Basse encouraged the audience to Trade, Tariffs and the BRICS Alliance remain engaged and informed. His presentation was a reminder Over the past few years, the U.S. agricultural trade balance hasof the complexities and challenges facing agriculture. As the shifted, with imports outpacing exports in some instances. Aindustry grapples with global shifts, rising competition, and eco-$42.5 billion trade deficit suggests that the value of importsnomic uncertainties, one question looms large: How will farmers significantly exceeds exports, a departure from the historicallyand policymakers adapt to secure a sustainable future? His data positive contribution of agriculture to the U.S. trade balance.and insights provided a valuable roadmap for navigating the Basse underscored the role of trade deficits in exacerbating theshifting tides of global markets, ensuring this ASTA Field Crop struggles of U.S. agriculture. Seed Convention session remains one of the most impactful of We used to contribute positively to the net trade balance ofthe year.SW36/ SEEDWORLD.COMJANUARY 2025'