b'DRAMATIC SHIFTS AHEADFOR GLOBAL AGRICULTUREDan Basse gives the popular agriculture economic outlook.By Aimee Nielson, Seed World U.S. EditorAT THE 2024American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) Field Crop Seed Convention, economist Dan Basse of AgResource Company captivated the audience once again with his much-anticipated agricultural economic update, unveiling dramatic shifts in global trade and farming economics. Known for his candid, data-driven analysis, Basse provided a sweeping overview of the economic and geopolitical forces shaping the agricultural landscape, offering insights honed from 45 years in the industry. Packed with perspectives and data, Basse presented to a full house. Global Geopolitics and the Decline of GlobalismThe world is changing quickly, Basse began, emphasizing a fundamental shift in global trade dynamics that could redefine how and where agricultural products are produced and sold. For the last 70 years, we had to come up with an idea for a new product, decide where we could produce it the most cheaply, and then sell it to the world. That was capitalism. Today, its not so simple.Pointing to a decline in globalism, Basse introduced the concept of a duopoly, describing an emerging economic and political divide between the United States and China. Weve got two power centers economically and politically developing in the world. Its China and the United States, he said, noting the implications of this shift extend far beyond trade. Globalism is dying. I dont want to say its dead, but its dying.Brazils Agricultural DominanceOne of Basses central points was the growing dominance of Brazil in global agriculture. The most important growing season in the world is no longer in our backyard, he asserted. Its downin So Paulo and Paran.Brazils record-breaking corn and soybean crops have solidi-fied its position as a powerhouse, creating significant challenges for U.S. farmers who face mounting competition in export mar-kets and declining market shares globally. Back in 1979, the United States controlled 68% of world grain trade. Today, were down around 12.5%, Basse said. Brazil now exports over 100 million metric tons of soybeans and 50 million metric tons of corn. Theyve become the worlds largest export-ers of both crops.He cautioned that the expansion shows no signs of slowing.Dan Basse stopped by the Seed World Media Center to chat with South America is increasing production by 20 to 25 millionAimee Nielson.34/ SEEDWORLD.COMJANUARY 2025'