b'New GMO regulation in China: Implications for seed marketChina, the second-largest seed market globally after the US, has the potential to revolutionize the seed industry by adopting genetically modified (GM) crops. The Chinese government has taken meaningful steps to establish a clear path for the approval and commercialization of GM crops. This includes publishing variety registration lists for GM corn and soybean, issuing biosafety certificates for domestic cultivation and processing of GM crops and implementing stricter penalties for intellectual property rights violations Bharti Malhotra in the seed market. The recent labeling revisions for GM seeds and the first ever registration of GM crop-linked herbicide in China, further indicate the Research Manager,Crop Science governments seriousness about the cultivation of GM crops.bharti.malhotra@spglobal.comGM regulatory update:In recent years, the Chinese government has made significant progress in genetically modified (GM) crops regulations. In December 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) approved the production, sale and distribution of GM corn and soybeans in specific provinces. This positive move was followed by the registration of51 GM corn and soybean varieties in December 2023. MARA also issued new and renewed biosafety certificates for GM events, including corn, soybean and cotton varieties. A second variety registration list for GM corn and soybean was published in March 2024. While these developments indicate progress towards full commercial cultivation of GM crops,they are likely to be limited to approved pilot programs in 2024. Update on new breeding techniques (NBTs):In January 2022, the Chinese government categorized NBTs as a subcategory of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). This decision required seed companies to obtain a biosafety certificate, submit biotechnology data and provide polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay results for approval. Unlike GMOs, gene-edited crops can apply for a production certificate after pilot trials, reducing the approval timeline from 56 years to 12 years. This indicates the governments aim to promote the development and commercialization of gene-edited/NBT crops for food security and reduced imports. Recently, two certificates were issued for gene-edited soybean events for domestic cultivation and processing, valid nationwide for five years.Cautious liberalization:Even with all the recent steps towards commercial cultivation of domestically developed GM corn and soybean, as well as further development of NBTs, uncertainties remain for the commercialization of the technologies in China. Overall, the recent developments of these two trends seem to provide a direction for Chinas intention regarding the seed market, further supported when paired with the major policy focus on food security, improving crop yield and advancing technological innovations. Although there has been anticipation for imminent commercial cultivation approval for more than 10 years, it does seem that it could now actually be within the next 34 years. The approval of GM technology in China will also create a significant future advantage for Chinese seed companies overseas, once commercial cultivation is finally approved by the government. Considering the near-time commercialization of GM crops in China, we expect Asia-Pacific to drive the global seed market growth with a 4.6% CAGR between 2023 and 2033.Access detailed information on NBT product development and regulations via S&P Globals Seed Innovation platform, featuring over 700 NBT products across grains, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables for 58 crops in over 50 countries. Note: We use proprietary models programmed on Python for forecasts that ingest as inputs S&P Global crop acreage, crop yield, crop price, fertilizer price and exchange rate data, through APIs and in-house insights and research of key seed market drivers, such as new traits, farmer-saved seed and GM penetration, to provide a unique viewpoint for our clients.Please visit our booth on the second floor at the WSC for engaging discussions and further insights. To get in touch with our team, please click here.FINAL-Seed-World-2024-SPG-Crop-Science-Ad-2.indd 1 26/04/2024 13:05:48'