b'Economic Outlook Bleak All around us, there is the war.As the situation continues, crop economic outlooks are predict-ing concerns with the loss of potential exports from both RussiaSome days it is difficult to work and Ukraine. and make any decisions after the According to the USDAs most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, concernsreports we hear.are growing due to the uncertainty of agricultural supply and Siuzana Grygorenkodemand conditions in Ukrainewith the expectation of lower exports in wheat, corn and soybean. Especially concerning is the impact on the global wheat outlook. World consumption of wheat is expected to raise 3.8 million tons to 791.1 millionunfortunately, global trade for 2022 is predicted to be lower due to issues in the Ukraine. Global wheat trade is expected to be 3 million tons lowerthe reportPrimarily, though, Leddin says its possible to see crops like notes exports from the EU, Ukraine, the U.S. and Kazakhstan aremillet or sorghum come into play more as a staple cereal in diet, not completely offset by higher exports from Russia, Brazil andbut this would be more used to make something along the lines Argentina. Meaning, there might be a shortage of wheat. of a porridge instead of a bread. Ukraines wheat exports were lowered 1 million tons to 19Whats more likely, he believes, is countries might not export million, due to the closures of its Black Sea ports caused by theas much as they would in a normal year to maintain and feed invasion in February. Global wheat stocks are projected at a five- their own citizens.year low. We saw in 2008, with the global financial crisis and food The U.S. cant make up the differences in exports.spike prices in India, that people in India were paying a larger The U.S. wheat exports forecast is lowered 15 millionpercentage of their income towards accessing food than bushels, the USDAs Office of the Chief Economist in a tweet.normal, he says. There was a lot of politics going on there. Exports would be the lowest since 2015-16, and the secondIndias main stance was they werent going to export their grains lowest in 50 years. outside of India and would consume them locally first. That can Corn is also expected to be lower in terms of exports fromhave a big price effect on other grains.Ukraine, Serbia and Paraguay, but U.S. soybean exports areIn this instance, Leddin believes if wheat prices were to go up, expected to offset lower numbers from Ukraine, Brazil andother cereal and crop prices might follow due to political deci-Russia. Unfortunately, global soybean production is expected tosions made by diffeerent developing countries to feed their own take a hitreduced by 3.1 million tons.populations first. When it comes down to it, the biggest concern stemmingAll in all, food price increases seem imminent. from lack of supply from Ukraine is the price of food increasing. Its not just Russia and Ukrainewere seeing fresh vegeta-ble prices go up due to the lack of transport availability, caus-Food Prices Will Increase ing an increase in the Western world, he says. Consumers are For countries that rely on Ukraine and Russias wheat exports,going to get that increase in price passed onto them.the lack of supply could result in increased prices of grainswhich, for developing nations, might not be a problem. ForThe Fight Isnt Over Yetdeveloped countries, its a different story. When it comes down to it, Grygorenko wants everyone to know Wheat doesnt grow well in tropical regions, but luckily, mostthat as the situation continues, the real heroes she sees right developing nations dont rely on grains as part of their diet, saysnow are the growers in Ukraine.Anthony Leddin, a plant breeder with Valley Seeds. The effectOur farmers and volunteers are heroic people, she says. wont be near as difficult in developing nations in comparison toSome farmers, especially in southern regions, continue working those who have wheat as a main staple in their diet. and helping civilians with food, fuel, bread and even seeds. War The main concern due to issues in the grain trade fromshows us and the world that nothing is impossible.Ukraine and Russia, however, would be the effects on the breadBut above all, Grygorenko wants people to know about their market globally.current reality.Wheat is pretty unique in that it has gluten to produceThis is a horrible war, she says. Russians destroy our infra-bread, Leddin says. Thats what you would have to buy in thestructure and our agricultural spherethey only want destruc-supermarket, and theres nothing else that can really substitutetion. They cannot fight with soldiers, so instead they fight with for itother cereals dont rise like wheat bread. children, women and the elderly. But we believe in the armed forces of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!SW26/ SEEDWORLD.COMINTERNATIONAL EDITION 2022'