b'The Trend is Your FriendUntil Its NotTHERES A SAYINGamong investors: The trendmilk more than we already are, because the spigots of is your friend. Meaning, you can capitalize on theproduction are wide open.sentiment of the moment by putting your money into2,700 dairy farms went out of business last year whats trending higher. and were still awash in milk. Dairy farmers have gotten The only problem with this saying is that it pertainsreally good at squeezing more milk out of Bessie! The to human trends, which are fickle, and the marketplace,average dairy cow produces about 40% more today which is in constant motion. Hence the second partthan she did on my dairy farm of the 1980s.of the phrase that too few wannabe Warren BuffettsWeve got a lot of the white stuff.And a lot of alter-know as well as the first:until the end when itnatives. Whether you call plant-based milk milk or bends. not wont change the fact that its stealing consump-DAMIAN MASON,Point being, trends dont last forever, thats whytion from real milk. Why? Because of savvy marketing. this speaker, author,theyre trends and not laws of marketplace reality. Plant beverages tout health, environment and animal agriculturalist andWhy am I talking to you about this, you ask?treatment claims.businessman works toBecause we in the business of agriculture are impactedIve been critical of the industry for not being more help individuals andby trends. Foodonce in scarce supply and difficultinnovative. While Monster Energy and Coca-Cola fuse businesses do better. to produceis neither of those things anymore.marketing muscle to sell more ounces of beverage, The business of food is more affected by trendsdairy focuses on production over promotion. The Got generally, than by our ability to produce it. BarringMilk ads were clever. For a while. Dairy stuck with the catastrophic weather or disease, we have food produc- campaign for 21 years!tion pretty well dialed in. In some cases, its so dialed inSo the question is: would brilliant marketing reverse theres too much of it. Which brings me to milk. the trend? I believe it would. Although well never drink A recent Wall Street Journal article profiled the47 gallons again. Theres simply too much trend work-travails of Dean Foods, the Dallas-based milk conglom- ing against milk. But theres room for growth. Eggs erate. Dean has (or had) 58 dairy processing facilitiesfought back from declining consumption and unsub-Trendsacross 29 states. The company shuttered a chunk ofstantiated health claims. We ate only 230 incredible those plants last year. Dean Foods today is valued atedible eggs per American in the mid 1990s. Last year dont last5% of what the company was worth 10 years ago. we surpassed 280 eggs each.forever, thatsSome of my ag friends blame Walmart, whichWhen the trend stops being your friend, savvy opened a milk processing facility last year. Whileinvestors change strategy. For the business of agricul-why theyreWalmarts move may be partly to blame, Walmart hasture there are three strategies to succeed when the trends andnothing to do with the reality of dairys meltdown. food trend stops being your friend:Fluid milk consumption has been declining on a1.Adjust production up or down to accommodate not laws ofper capita basis since 1947, when we drank 47 gallonsthe trend. annually. Last I looked consumption was around 162. Create new products that capture the trend. marketplacegallons. Walmart didnt do this. If anything, the retailers3. Change promotional methods to appeal to the reality.cheap prices may have propped up milk. trend.The trend is simply against milk. Cereal consump- The first option generally happens automati-tion has declined due to gluten free eating and thecally and often involuntarily. The second two options low-carb craze. Milkcereals partner at the breakfasthappen through commitment and creativity. As a dairy tabledeclined too.farm boy and devoted drinker of chocolate milk, I wish Lucky for dairy, the trend line for cheese and yogurtthe trend was better for dairy. More importantly, I wish has gone the opposite direction of milk. Consumptionthe industry would call on me to help implement those of both products has more than tripled since the 1970s.second two strategies. SW Were it not for cheese and yogurt, wed be drowning in 88/ SEEDWORLD.COMOCTOBER 2019'