b"The New Normal: Managing Agricultural Inputs Amidst Market VolatilityInput costs will likely level out in 2025, providing some much-needed respite for Latin American growers.Marc ZienkiewiczOVER THE PASTthree years, thefrom this norm, driven largely by globalour bins for an extended period, while the global economic landscape has beenpolitical dynamics and farm incomenext, it becomes the top choice of farm-marked by unprecedented levels of dis- trends. For instance, Chinas decision toers, Stamp says.ruption. When it comes to risk mitigationlimit fertilizer exports due to domesticFurthermore, retailers need to adopt strategies, its crucial to understand theaffordability concerns has contributed toa judicious approach to pricing and scale of these disruptions.the current unaffordability in the phos- resource management, according to What was once a relatively stablephate market. Stamp.environment suddenly shifted dramati- Looking ahead, the geopolitical land- Every aspect, from staff wages to cally around August 2020, extendingscape will continue to influence fertilizerfreight charges, must be factored into the through 2023, says Sam Taylor, farmprices, with factors like Chinas exportequation, he says.inputs analyst for Rabobank based inpolicies and Moroccos market strate- Moreover, Stamp highlights the perva-New York.gies shaping global supply and demandsive impact of regulatory measures, such Fertilizer prices surged threefold, com- dynamics, Taylor says. While some reliefas carbon taxes, on the cost structure of modity prices doubled, and glyphosatemay be on the horizon in the second halfseed retailing operations. prices tripled.of the year, the immediate future remainsThe ripple effects of policies like This upheaval wasnt caused by auncertain. carbon taxation permeate every facet of single factor; rather, it stemmed from aThis volatility affects not only retailersthe supply chain, necessitating strategic multitude of events, including the Texasbut also the entire value chain through- adjustments to maintain profitability. power crisis, COVID-related disruptions,out the Americas, posing challenges forHarnessing economies of scale fluctuating natural gas and coal prices,independent growers like Greg Stamp,becomes imperative in mitigating and environmental concerns.who grows and sells seed nearthe impact of escalating costs, These factors, compounded byEnchant, Alberta, in Canada. Stamp says.sanctions and conflicts, created a volatileMarket swings dictate market driven by what seems like a con- our planting decisions,Distribution of Chemistrytinuous stream of unforeseen events. but anticipating theseOn the chemistry side, one Examining the affordability index offluctuations is likeof the recurring narratives fertilizers reveals a cycle to the volatility,reading tea leaves.revolves around the distribution with periods of peak and trough occur- One year, a par- of inventory across different seg-ring roughly every 18 months, Taylor says.ticular varietyments of the value chain, particularly However, recent events have deviatedmay sit inwithin the retail sphere of the Brazilian market, Taylor says. Understanding this can be a bit more difficult due to the unique pathways products take to reach consumers. Unlike in some other markets, in Brazil, there's a tendency for a significant portion of goods to flow directly from major suppli-ers to large-scale growers. This dynamic often results in unaccounted-for inven-tory existing at the farm level, he says.Recent financial reports seem to suggest that the backlog of inventory is gradually dissipating at the retail level in 30/ SEEDWORLD.COMLATAM"