b'New Technology Dramatically Improves Long-Range Weather PredictionAn oceanographer and his engineer sons fundamentally change the game for sub-seasonal weather forecasting, outperforming the most respected global long-range weather forecasts.Maya Simone, Seed World ContributorDESPITE ADVANCEDtechnology and the best efforts ofThe Bureau of Reclamation manages a lot of hydroelectric leading global organizations like the National Oceanic anddams in the West, which are also used for agricultural irrigation. Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), long range weather pre- They needed a better understanding of sub-seasonal rainfall dictionanything that aims to predict beyond days or, at best,forecasts: that two weeks to six weeks window. So, they ran a weeksis often viewed as unreliable and for good reason.contest in hopes of finding a better way, Schmitt says.Historically, weather forecasting has relied on numericalThe contest requirements were intense. weather prediction (NWP) models like NOAAs Global ForecastEvery other Monday, we had to submit two forecasts: a System (FGS) and the European Center for Medium Rangethree-to-four-week lead and a five-to-six-week lead. Then, wed Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These models input currentget scored for accuracy on what wed submitted four and six weather observations and simulate the physics of atmosphericweeks previously, Schmitt says.processes by numerically solving complex equations. Beyond aThe traditional method for weather prediction is to build week, chaos overwhelms these physical models.weather models based almost exclusively on data from NOAA Oceanographer Ray Schmitt, who has spent a career study- and ECMWF. The near-term forecastapproximately five days ing how ocean currents impact weather, figured there had to beoutis relatively accurate because it is based on real-time a more accurate way. Working literally from his living room table,observations including ground-based et stations, barometric he and his two engineer sons developed a technology that offerspressures collected by aircraft and satellite imagery. Beyond a dramatically and consistently more accurate sub-seasonal (twohandful of days, however, the predictions become more unreli-to six weeks) and seasonal (six weeks to six months) weatherable. Most weather providers simply aggregate the models forecasts. Their technology could prove fundamental to helpingreleased, gathering and presenting longer range weather models farmers respond effectively to weather extremes in our increas- in more understandablebut no more accurateways.ingly volatile weather reality. Schmitts concept was very different. Schmitt has always had an interest in weather prediction. ThatRather than exclusively prioritizing historical weather to shape interest took a turn to the more serious when, in 2017, the U.S.future predictions, Schmitts forecasting system considered Bureau of Reclamation hosted a sub-seasonal weather forecast- unconventional data sources focused on the ocean and land ing competition. The contest, which offered a quarter million- surfaces, which provide information about what he calls the dollar prize, tasked teams with producing a whole years worth ofinertial momentum of the climate system on seasonal to yearly rainfall predictions.timescales. 30/ SEEDWORLD.COMSEPTEMBER 2024'