b'There were a lot of bilateral talks set up between differ- between the United States and Japan, and just in general to ent parts of the U.S. and Chinese governments, Klieger says.more of our allies.Debatably, did they cause structural changes in the U.S.-China relationship? Maybe. But probably not as much as people hoped. Incentives and Cabinet PositionsAll-in-all, that means when new presidents came into office,When it comes down to the idea of farmer incentives, both China was already on their toes, expecting a big trade talk fromKlieger and Thatcher wonder if the potential for cover crop seed the U.S. incentives will be available in a Biden administration. Both say China knew that this big trade talk was coming from onethat one things for certain: climate change is high on Bidens of these committees or there was going to be a high-level visit,priority list.and suddenly, there would be a flurry of activity on the ChineseBiden has been really open about the fact that hed like to side, Klieger says. We would see biotech approvals and wedspend $2 trillion on climate change incentives, Thatcher says. see other things that the U.S. had been pushing for. It was almostHowever, it really depends if the democrats win both seats in like, Were going to do this big, showy thing, and China wouldGeorgia, and therefore, control the Senate.give a few things we wanted. But it didnt structurally change theThatcher believes that even if the Republicans have the trade process. Senate majority, climate change will still be on the table, but the However, Thatcher notes that wasnt quite President Trumpsincentive money would be nowhere near the $2 trillion Biden has style when he came into office.suggested. Trump felt strongly that we were the largest economy inKlieger says another thing it comes down is how a program the world, so arguably, we should really be able to go into tradelike this would be introduced: would it be introduced as an agreements on our own, she says. And then, we wouldnt haveincentive-based program or a regulation?to negotiate with other groups first. Right now, an incentive-based program would be better, Klieger agrees that Trump took the complete opposite stanceshe says. Instead of saying all lands that get federal crop insur-after seeing that there wasnt any structural trade change afterance require a cover crop, it would be more successful to incen-these meetings. tivize farmers with a program similar to the American Farm Trust, Instead, Trumps response was to use these tariffs, she says.which gives you $5 off your cover crop.And so, the question became over the last four yearswereInstead of a requirement, Klieger believes an incentive pro-these tariffs and trade deals more incremental or did it causegram would encourage more cover crops and encourage more structural change? I think in phase one, there was still a lot ofeducation when it comes to cover crops, which could get farm-restoring the status quo before the tariffs. Phases two and threeers to understand the benefits of cover crops. were supposed to be those structural changes, but weve nowAnother point thats up in the air currently is the question of run out of time for them. whos going to be the Secretary of Agriculture. Klieger notes that its hard to see which sidethese bilateralIf I was guessing right now, Thatcher says, my top two talks or this direct-to-China discussionwas more effective inguesses would be Marcia Fudge and Heidi Heitkamp.the long run.However, Thatcher says its important to remember one thing: When it comes to speculating Bidens future with the Chinathe USDA secretary is usually one of the final cabinet positions Trade Deal, Thatcher mentions that she doesnt think Biden willappointed. just do-away with it.Biden has said he wants a cabinet that looks like the country, While Trump prides himself as being the Tariff Man, I dontshe says. Hes not the first person to say thatmost people do think thats Bidens M.O., she says. I anticipate that he will attemptattempt to make sure you have all areas of the United States cov-to reduce some of the $360 billions of tariffs that are in place, butered. I use this as an examplesome people say Karen Ross from hes not going to do it for the heck of it. Hes going to want some- California might be the person, but if Biden has already appointed thing in return, and I dont think we know what that is yet. another cabinet position to someone from California, then maybe Thatcher says Biden could want a few things that haventhe goes elsewhere to get more diversity.been accomplished yetranging anywhere from making theRealistically, Thatcher says its a hard target to pin down, purchases theyve agreed to all the way to reducing the amountbecause its constantly moving. of time that biotech gets approved in China.There are unfortunately more cabinet positions right now Klieger believes that while Democrats have historically beenthat rank above the Secretary of Agriculture, she says. And harsher on China than Republicans, we might actually see someafter those positions are appointed, then it might be necessary stability with the U.S.s relationship with China. to reevaluate the idea of looking like America.SWI dont expect it to get much better, but it is possible well expect it to get more stable, Klieger says. I dont think that theEditors Note: At the time of publication, the Georgia Senate economies are going to become more intertwined. Id expect torunoff had not taken place and the Secretary of Agriculture was see more cooperation between the United States and Europe,not appointed.JANUARY 2021SEEDWORLD.COM /7'