b'BRAZILS AGRICULTURAL DOMINANCEOne of Basses central points was the growing dominance of Brazil in global agriculture.The most important growing season in the world is no longer in our backyard, he asserted. Its downin So Paulo and Paran.Brazils record-breaking corn and soybean crops have solidi-fied its position as a powerhouse, creating significant challenges for U.S. farmers who face mounting competition in export markets and declining market shares globally.Back in 1979, the United States controlled 68% of world grain trade. Today, were down around 12.5%, Basse said. Brazil now exports over 100 million metric tons of soybeans and 50 million metric tons of corn. Theyve become the worlds largest exporters of both crops.He cautioned that the expansion shows no signs of slowing.South America is increasing production by 20 to 25 million metric tons of corn and soybeans each year. Thats the equivalent ofFor the last 70 years, we had to 750 to 900 million bushels annually, without a weather problem. come up with an idea for a new TRADE, TARIFFS AND THE BRICS ALLIANCE product, decide where we could Over the past few years, the U.S. agricultural trade balance hasproduce it the most cheaply, and shifted, with imports outpacing exports in some instances. A $42.5then sell it to the world. That was billion trade deficit suggests that the value of imports significantlycapitalism. Today, its not so simple. exceeds exports, a departure from the historically positive contri-bution of agriculture to the U.S. trade balance. Basse underscored Dan Bassethe role of trade deficits in exacerbating the struggles of U.S. agri-culture.We used to contribute positively to the net trade balance of the United States, he lamented. The last three years, that hasnt happened. This year, its estimated at a $42.5 billion trade deficit.Chinas diversification of suppliers, particularly its reliance on Brazil for corn and soybeans, has dealt a significant blow. BasseThe ag barometer from Purdue and the CME skyrocketed, suggested that Chinas boom is over. Basse noted. Farmers are the most optimistic theyve been since the Brazil has now taken the crown as the largest seller of com- pandemic of 2020 Every response indicated that their confidence modity goods to China, Basse said. Our estimate is somewherein the U.S. farm economy took a big leap forward.around $43 billion.Meanwhile, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, ChinaTHE ROAD AHEADand South Africa) are gaining economic clout. Their combinedBasse left the audience with a series of pressing questions about the GDP is now 32%, surpassing the G7, Basse explained.future of agriculture.These countries also own 42% of the worlds oil and are stock- What can turn the grain cycle? he asked. One thing would piling gold. This duopoly is reshaping global dynamics. be Mother Nature. Global weather is something that is far from certain, and were facing the warmest year on record in 2024.ECONOMIC CHALLENGES FOR U.S. FARMERS He also pointed to the imbalance between commodity and Turning his attention to the U.S., Basse painted a sobering picture. equity markets.When I look at the price of corn and soybeans in ChicagoCommodities are too cheap, or stock prices are too high, he today, its below the cost of production. Farmers are going to strug- said. Somethings going to give in the next three or four years, and gle, he said, noting that rising government debt further compoundsIm not quite sure which.the issue.With cautious optimism, Basse encouraged the audience to We are now increasing debt by a trillion dollars every 100remain engaged and informed. His presentation was a reminder of days. The United States is on its way to $42 trillion in debt by 2027. the complexities and challenges facing agriculture. As the indus-Basse highlighted declining farm income as a major concern. try grapples with global shifts, rising competition, and economic This is going to be the worst year for net margins since 2005,uncertainties, one question looms large: How will farmers and he warned. Farmers are looking at Chicago, theyre looking atpolicymakers adapt to secure a sustainable future? His data and their costs, and theyre trying to decide where they can trade downinsights provided a valuable roadmap for navigating the shifting or cut back. tides of global markets, ensuring this session remains one of the Despite these challenges, optimism among farmers has surgedmost impactful of the year. following the recent U.S. presidential election. FEBRUARY 2025|SEEDWORLD.COM/EUROPEISEED WORLD EUROPE I 33'