40   SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA   JULY 2026
the damage to facilities, it’s going to take 
time. It takes 60 to 90 days of no hostili­
ties and free passage just to normalize the 
flow of goods.”
Even then, normalization is relative. 
Facilities across the region have been hit, 
and fertilizer production is not easily or 
quickly restored.
“How soon can you fix an ammo­
nia or urea plant that has been hit by 
bombs?” Keyman asks. “These are big 
pieces that you cannot buy off the shelf. 
They have to be produced, delivered 
and installed. The shortage, which was 
already there, will now be a long-term 
problem.”
A System Already Under Strain
Long before ships stalled and supply 
tightened, the fertilizer system was 
heading toward imbalance. Demand has 
continued to grow, but investment in 
new production has lagged behind.
“There’s a mismatch between con­
sumption growth and new facilities,” 
Keyman says. “In the next few years, 
we would be in a chronic shortage of 
nitrogen if we do not come up with new 
investments. But these are $2 billion to 
$3 billion-dollar projects. It takes years 
to permit, financing is difficult and natu­
ral gas price visibility is not always there.”
While nitrogen gets the most atten­
tion, Keyman points to an even more 
immediate risk hiding in plain sight.
“The war is causing bigger havoc on 
the phosphate side,” he says. “Sulfur is the 
biggest problem, causing production out­
ages globally. Phosphate reserves are con­
centrated in only a few places, so when 
something goes wrong, the consequences 
are much faster and more severe.”
Those consequences do not stay 
contained within fertilizer markets. They 
cascade.
“If China is not exporting phosphates 
over the summer, you can expect major 
yield losses in Brazil,” Keyman says. 
“That results in higher soybean prices 
and risks for global supply.”
WHY THE FERTILIZER 
CRISIS WON’T END 
WHEN THE WAR DOES
A fragile fertilizer system meets geopolitical shock, exposing 
deeper cracks in supply, pricing and farmer profitability that 
won’t disappear when conflict subsides. 
By Aimee Nielson, Seed World U.S. Editor
Editor’s note: Information was current as of 
press time. Sources indicate market impacts 
and supply constraints are expected to per­
sist beyond any short-term de-escalation.
THE FERTILIZER CRISIS gripping global 
agriculture did not begin with war. It 
was already building, quietly tightening 
across supply chains, buying habits and 
investment pipelines. What recent geopo­
litical disruption has done is expose just 
how fragile the system had become, and 
how quickly that fragility can ripple from 
global trade routes to on-farm decisions.
Melih Keyman, CEO and founder 
of Keytrade AG, has spent decades 
watching fertilizer move across borders, 
markets and seasons. From his vantage 
point, the current moment is less of 
sudden shock and more of a collision of 
long-developing pressures.
“The nitrogen markets were already 
tight before hostility started,” Keyman 
says. “This last-minute buying habit of 
our growers globally and the retailers 
as well has complicated the situation. 
Nothing in the summer, nothing in Q4, 
and then a rush right before application 
season. Now we are seeing the results of 
this behaviour.”
That behaviour met disruption at the 
worst possible time. As tensions esca­
lated across the Arabian Gulf, critical 
supply routes tightened just as demand 
peaked. While much of the world fixated 
on whether the Strait of Hormuz would 
reopen, Keyman says the damage was 
already done.
“This excitement that it may be open 
today or tomorrow, sure, it will be great 
news,” Keyman says. “But until that 
pileup of ships is cleared and we assess 

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