JUNE 2026  SEEDWORLD.COM /  17
Beyond Fertilizer
As pressure builds, the effects 
are already moving beyond 
fertilizer decisions and into 
broader farm management.
“I think everything is on the 
table,” Turner says. “Farmers 
are looking at absolutely every 
decision they make — crop 
rotation, input choices, seed 
selection. We’re already seeing 
acres fluctuate in certain 
regions.”
That shift matters not just 
for individual operations, but 
for the broader agricultural 
system.
“If the American farmer 
goes because they can’t make 
margin, so goes everything — 
fuel, supply chain, fiber, food, 
protein,” Abbott says. “If we 
don’t pay attention to farm 
economics and rural health, 
you will have a problem to 
the likes you have never seen 
before. People don’t realize 
how integrated this is into their 
daily lives.”
A Shift Toward Efficiency
If there is a path forward, 
Keyman says it lies in changing 
how the industry approaches 
inputs altogether.
“We are going to have to 
turn into providers of solutions 
instead of sellers of fertilizers, 
seeds or chemicals,” he says. 
“We have to improve effi­
ciency. Technology — better 
seeds, better chemistry, spe­
cialty fertilizers — that is where 
the yield gains are coming 
from now.”
Abbott echoes that shift 
from a different angle, noting 
that not all responses to the 
crisis are rooted in supply.
“Technology should be 
cost deflationary,” Abbott 
says. “In most industries, when 
technology advances, costs 
go down. Agriculture has not 
always followed that pattern, 
and at some point, farmers 
cannot absorb continuous cost 
increases.”
Pivot Bio has moved to 
lower prices and offer multi-
year supply commitments, 
positioning it as one example 
of how companies are trying 
to respond. But Abbott sug­
gests the broader takeaway is 
not about one program — it is 
about mindset.
“If we say the farmer is our 
true north, then we have to act 
like it,” he says. “That means 
making decisions that actually 
help them through periods like 
this.”
A System That Won’t Snap 
Back Easily
For all the attention on ship­
ping lanes and geopolitical 
headlines, the deeper story 
is harder to unwind. Supply 
constraints, investment hur­
dles, purchasing behavior and 
farmer economics are now 
tightly interwoven.
Keyman sees the risk 
clearly.
“The shortage was already 
there,” he says. “Now it has 
become something longer 
term. We have to hedge better, 
plan better and pay attention 
to where the real vulnerabili­
ties are — especially in phos­
phates.”
And even if conditions 
improve, he offers a final caution.
“History tells me we have 
short memories,” Keyman says. 
“When things get better, we 
tend to forget and go back to 
the same behavior. But this 
time, the system may not for­
give that so easily.” SW
“In the next few years, we would be in a chronic 
shortage of nitrogen if we do not come up with 
new investments.” 
—Melih Keyman
800-873-3321
sales@ernstseed.com
Restoring the Native
Landscape Since 1964

View this content as a flipbook by clicking here.