14 / SEEDWORLD.COM JUNE 2026 Editor’s note: Information was current as of press time. Sources indicate market impacts and supply constraints are expected to persist beyond any short-term de-escalation. THE FERTILIZER CRISIS gripping global agriculture did not begin with war. It was already building, quietly tight ening across supply chains, buying habits and investment pipelines. What recent geo political disruption has done is expose just how fragile the system had become, and how quickly that fragility can ripple from global trade routes to on- farm decisions. Melih Keyman, CEO and founder of Keytrade AG, has spent decades watching fertilizer move across borders, markets and seasons. From his vantage point, the cur rent moment is less of sudden shock and more of a collision of long-developing pressures. “The nitrogen markets were already tight before hostility started,” Keyman says. “This last-minute buying habit of our growers globally and the retailers as well has compli cated the situation. Nothing in the summer, nothing in Q4, and then a rush right before application season. Now we are seeing the results of this behavior.” That behavior met disrup tion at the worst possible time. As tensions escalated across the Arabian Gulf, critical supply routes tightened just as demand peaked. While much of the world fixated on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, Keyman says the damage was already done. “This excitement that it may be open today or tomorrow, sure, it will be great news,” Keyman says. “But until that pileup of ships is cleared and we assess the damage to facili ties, it’s going to take time. It takes 60 to 90 days of no hos tilities and free passage just to normalize the flow of goods.” Even then, normalization is relative. Facilities across the region have been hit, and ferti lizer production is not easily or quickly restored. “How soon can you fix an ammonia or urea plant that has been hit by bombs?” Keyman asks. “These are big pieces that you cannot buy off the shelf. They have to be produced, delivered and installed. The shortage, which was already there, will now be a long-term problem.” A System Already Under Strain Long before ships stalled and supply tightened, the fertilizer system was heading toward imbalance. Demand has con tinued to grow, but investment in new production has lagged behind. “There’s a mismatch between consumption growth and new facilities,” Keyman says. “In the next few years, we would be in a chronic shortage of nitrogen if we do not come up with new investments. But these are $2 billion to $3 Why the Fertilizer Crisis Won’t End When the War Does A fragile fertilizer system meets geopolitical shock, exposing deeper cracks in supply, pricing and farmer profitability that won’t disappear when conflict subsides. By Aimee Nielson, Seed World U.S. Editor
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