SEPTEMBER 2026 SEEDWORLD.COM / 29 the greatest famines in these Asian regions occurred during that super El Niño event. Interestingly, despite five super El Niño years since 1877-1878, we have not repeated the 1877-1878 weather extremes. We have seen drought develop in parts of Asia, but it’s been nothing along the lines of what took place back then. Many unusual fac tors made 1877-1878 more extreme that did not show up in the following super El Niños. Why 1877-1878 Still Matters One important variable is the Indian Ocean dipole, which is essentially the sea surface temperature differential in the waters west of India from the waters east of India. All super El Niños that have occurred since 1850 had positive Indian Ocean dipoles where western waters are warmer than the eastern waters. When that happens, it typically increases the moisture poten tial for the southern Asian countries, like India, helping at least half of Asia mitigate the worst drought type conditions. The super El Niño of 1877 to 1878 had a neutral-to negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which allowed the drought conditions to encompass the entire Asian continent. Right now, the Indian Ocean dipole is in the negative phase, and all indications and model forecasts suggest it will remain neutral to negative at least through the summer months. Another very unusual factor that occurred in 1877-1878 was the duration of the peak warm waters of the central Pacific lasted up to six months before cooling down. Every super El Niño since then has remained at those warm levels for only one to two months, making both the persistence of the warm waters and the El Niño-driven drought impacts on Asia an order of magnitude more extreme in 1877-78. While there’s no way to forecast if this super El Niño will have the same duration as 1877-1878, it is something we will look at as a verification or a signpost to watch as we approach peak El Niño. Several Warning Signs are Flashing Another factor that helps suppress the Asian monsoon during the summer growing season other than El Niño is having high Asian sand dust aerosols in the atmosphere from the Arabian Peninsula. This is something we are already seeing this year and it is very similar to what we saw in 2002, which was a moderate El Niño. Although moderate, it did trigger one of the worst droughts in India in 50 years. We will be watch this variable very closely to see if these con centrations remain high going into the key summer months. Lastly, we are seeing a very early active start to the western Pacific typhoon season which helps pull moisture away from Asia as they tend to curve east of Japan and into the arctic airflow. If this hyperactivity continues, we expect additional Asian mon soon suppression. The number of variables aligning in ways similar to the 1877- 78 super El Niño is a reason the drought unfolding across Asia, particularly India, could rival the event severity of 150 years ago. The Seed Industry May Need to Prepare Now This pattern also drives strong drought teleconnections across central and northern Brazil, home to 70% of the country’s soy bean and corn production from Oct. 15 through May 15. It could exacerbate a 15-year structural decline in moisture caused in part by Amazon deforestation weakening regional monsoon flow. We could see extreme shortages develop in key crops like rice, sugar, corn, soybeans and palm oil over the next 12 months. While El Niño tends to be adverse to growing good crops in these regions, North America usually has very good growing weather. With that in mind, we expect generally favorable weather conditions for North American production. Developing short ages overseas could also drive prices higher, creating opportu nities for North American producers to market strong crops at better prices. That could ease some of the financial pressure farmers have faced from low commodity prices, high production costs and disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether you are a producer, end user or involved in the seed and agricultural input industries, the next 12 months will require careful risk management. Navigating this rare and unusual super El Niño setup could determine who thrives and who simply sur vives higher prices and potential shortages. SW 800-873-3321 sales@ernstseed.com Since 1964 Restoring the Native Landscape
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