16 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2026 “On paper, corn stover is abundant,” Ebikade says. “In practice, it is very hard to work with, because it has a lot of ash.” That ash can disrupt conversion pro cesses and increase processing costs. The same challenges appear across multiple biomass streams, reinforcing a familiar lesson for the seed and breeding commu nity: biological systems introduce variabil ity, and variability affects economics. Co-Products and Conversion Technology Shape The Economics The long-term viability of sustainable aviation fuel may depend less on fuel alone and more on the broader value cre ated from each ton of biomass. Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center director and UW–Madison Department of Bacteriology professor Timothy Donohue emphasizes fuels and chemicals must be developed together. “Only half of their profit comes from fuels. The other half comes from chemi cals,” he says, describing petroleum refin ery economics and the model bioenergy researchers are working to replicate. Researchers are exploring ways to convert lignocellulosic biomass into fuels and chemical intermediates. That approach improves the financial case for biorefineries and creates additional markets for agricultural byproducts. Donohue summarizes the goal simply: converting residues into revenue. For seed companies and crop scien tists, that framework signals a new set of opportunities. Traits, crop systems and residue management strategies that improve biomass quality and conversion potential could influence SAF economics. State Policy Drives Early Market Development Policy is accelerating the conversation, particularly at the state level. Clean Fuels Michigan executive direc tor Jane McCurry says uncertainty around federal policy has pushed states to take a more active role in building incentives and market frameworks. “There’s a huge opportunity for states and regions to step up and create cer tainty at the state level,” she says. Michigan is pursuing both a sustain able aviation fuel tax credit and a broader clean fuel standard designed to reward lower-carbon fuels across multiple sec tors. The goal is to attract investment, support agricultural supply chains and position the region as a production hub. The economic implications are sub stantial. Modeling tied to clean fuel policy proposals in Michigan estimates billions in potential investment and economic activ ity over time. For agriculture, those policies translate into demand signals. Domestic feedstock provisions, regional production incentives and partnerships with airlines all point to a future where crop systems and biomass supply chains are directly tied to aviation fuel markets. The Food Versus Fuel Debate Still Shapes Public Perception Public perception continues to influence the SAF discussiohn. Concerns about diverting food crops into fuel production surface frequently, even as industry participants emphasize the diversity of feedstocks under con sideration. Agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, waste streams and purpose- grown energy crops are all part of the SAF feedstock landscape. Ebikade notes that global food secu rity concerns remain a factor in how the issue is viewed internationally, even when local production systems differ. Csonka stresses that SAF develop ment is not tied to a single crop or region. The strategy depends on sourcing feed stocks suited to local agronomic condi tions worldwide. McCurry points to a broader aware ness gap where consumers often do not realize how much of modern agri culture already feeds energy, industrial and animal production systems rather than directly supplying food. That lack of understanding shapes reactions to new uses for agricultural materials. SAF Creates New Questions for Seed Companies and Researchers For the seed sector, emerging sustainable aviation fuel raises strategic questions. What crop systems produce the most efficient biomass? Which traits improve conversion outcomes? How should resi dues be managed and valued? Where will regional supply chains develop? How will new markets affect planting decisions and breeding priorities? The SAF market depends on incre mental gains across genetics, agronomy, logistics, processing and policy. Opportunity and Risk Will Grow Together SAF could create a major new market for agriculture, but cost, infrastructure and supply will determine its growth. Seed companies must deliver feed stocks that work on farms and in fuel production. Their success could decide whether SAF remains a niche or becomes a major global market. SW “We’re talking about really a new industrial sector that we’re trying to bring online to produce more sustainable fuels for aviation.” — Steve Csonka Infrastructure And Blending May Become The Next Bottleneck As production increases, logistical con straints begin to surface. Fuel blending, storage and distribu tion systems built around petroleum must adapt to accommodate multiple SAF pathways and specifications. Even when fuels meet standards individually, blend ing can introduce new challenges. “You might actually blend synthetic fuel and jet fuel… and they give you an off spec fuel,” Ebikade says. Scaling SAF will require coordination across refiners, midstream operators, airports and producers. The seed industry has seen similar coordination challenges when new traits or technologies require synchronized adoption.
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