28 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2026 BY SHAWN HACKETT, Seed World U.S. Columnist Super El Niño Could Rival Historic 1877-78 Event WHEN IT COMES to predicting climate, it’s my experience that history rhymes consistently. Meaning, if we have a good concept of what has hap pened in the past, those events will reoccur. Although no two events are exactly the same, they do rhyme sufficiently to be able to make some grande conclu sions in terms of possible weather anomalies, at-risk areas and potential impacts to agricultural prices, infla tion, geopolitics and the ag economy. For the seed industry, adverse weather that a super El Niño may bring can alter world seed production. It may also modulate seed demand as planted acres shift while adding an element of economic uncertainty to seed pricing structures. Preparing to adapt to rapidly changing world seed dynamics to future seed busi ness planning decisions can be the difference maker in aligning grower needs with seed producer interests. A rare alignment of climate indicators raises the possibility of a historic super El Niño. What are the potential implications for global crop supplies, seed sector planning and agricultural profitability? First let’s define what a super El Niño means. A super El Niño is when the sea surface tempera tures of the central Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal by at least 2°C or more. Since 1850, there have been six super El Niños that have occurred. There are many contributing synchronized variables that determine whether or not the weather condi tions around the world are going to be on the more severe side or less severe. Our work and the forecast models are all forecasting it will reach this by the fourth quarter of 2026. A Rare Climate Setup is Taking Shape The 1877-1878 super El Niño was one of the worst droughts in Asia. Depending on the country you’re talking about, it was a 100- to 500-year drought. It brought crop failures across the board and many of Historical reconstructions show the extensive drought that developed across Asia during the 1877-1878 super El Niño, an event often cited as one of the most geographically widespread droughts of the past 500 years. SOURCE: NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT ATLAS.
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