46 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2018 Certain countries, such as China, are experiencing a rising income which changes their food buying pattern. Instead of buying more cereals and grains, there’s an increased demand for meat and fish. Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa and India will account for a large share of the demand for cereals. However, it’s important to note that high growth in aver- age incomes doesn’t mean that poorer households will have an income growth. Per capita food demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain at relatively low levels, the authors note. Another factor contributing to demand is non-food uses of agricultural goods, particularly that of animal feed and fuel. “With the population growth slowing rapidly, it was the boom in using grains, sugar and oilseeds as transport fuel that was behind much of the run up in prices during the past decade,” Sumner says. “Non-food uses, particularly feed and fuel, are important for several agricultural commodities, and often show faster growth rates than food demand,” the authors say. “In the case of feed, this will remain true in the coming decade. Biofuels by contrast were a major factor stimulating demand for agricultural com- modities in the past decade, but growth is slowing down in the coming decade.” So Now What? With these projections in mind, is there any way that the seed industry can prepare? “The projections are business as usual,” says Sumner. “Maybe the biofuels subsidies and mandates will back off more quickly than they think. Maybe China will grow more slowly, maybe India will adopt more open trade policy and grow more rapidly, maybe more places in Africa will reduce conflicts and begin to take off rapidly. All of these changes in big places would affect the global path of production, consumption and prices.” There are a lot of potentials that can happen within the next 10 years. But even with all the “maybe” and “what-ifs,” it’s impor- tant to be prepared and keep up with the projections for the future of agriculture. SW China European Union United States MENA Brazil India 2015-17 2027 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 DEMAND FOR FEED BY REGION NOTE: MENA stands for the Middle East and North Africa. Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistic (database). Mt