36 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2018 DRIVEN BY COMMODITY prices and the impacts of trade tariffs, farmers are increasingly pessimistic about the overall ag economy, according to the results of Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer July report. Each month, agricultural economists poll 400 farmers located around the nation to get their opinions and perspec- tive on the agricultural economy. This month’s results are a sharp departure from the previous months, says Jim Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. The index fell to 117 from 143 from one month ago, Mintert says, noting that it’s the largest one-month barometer decline since 2015 when researchers started the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer. “The decline in the barometer was driven by both a decline in people’s perception of current conditions in the ag economy, as evidenced in the barometer falling from 138 to 99 in July, but also a decline in future expectations,” he says. “The future expecta- tions index fell from 146 to 126.” When comparing results of the July report to the June report, the percentage of farmers who said their operation was worse off compared to a year ago skyrocketed, hitting 55 percent in July versus June’s 38 percent. Furthermore, the percentage of people who thought bad financial times in the ag economy were ahead jumped from 46 percent to 61 percent in July. At the same time, Mintert says they saw a decline in the percent of people expecting good times. That number moved from 26 percent in June to 19 percent in July. As one might expect from the numbers above, farmers do not think it’s a good time to be investing in the farm. As a result, 31 percent of respondents expect lower farm- land prices. Mintert says a month ago, that number was only 21 percent. “As you look at the data, that takes us back to where we were in the spring and summer of 2017,” he says. “We had been looking at an ongoing improvement in people’s perspectives of where farmland prices were headed. We’ve now given up those gains.” A driver of producer sentiment is the impact of President Trump’s trade strategy. “One of the big concerns among producers has been the trade conflict, especially with China and the NAFTA countries,” Mintert says. Results are in from the July Ag Economy Barometer and producers have low expectations for the year ahead. However, those in the seed industry remain optimistic. Julie Deering jdeering@issuesink.com Seed Companies Optimistic, Producers Pessimistic “With seed company mergers, supply and demand is going to fluctuate. I think there may be seed shortages of non-GMO seeds, as well as Liberty-tolerant seeds.” —Dave Nanda Researchers asked the question, “how likely do you think U.S. agriculture is at risk of a trade war that results in a signifi- cant decrease in U.S. agricultural exports?” Fifty-four percent of producers thought that was likely, up from 46 percent in April and 47 percent in March. The percentage of people who thought it was unlikely fell to 23 percent from 30 percent in April and 28 percent in March. “People are more concerned about the prospects of an ongo- ing trade war than they were earlier in the year,” Mintert says. The subsequent question asked producers if they expected to see a decline in their farm’s net income due to trade conflicts,