38 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2018 of which 70 percent responded “yes.” Of those who responded “yes,” 29 percent thought their net farm income would go down up to 10 percent in 2018. Meanwhile, 36 percent thought their net farm income would decrease between 10 and 20 percent, and 35 percent thought their net farm income would decrease by more than 20 percent. On the corn side, Mintert says producers are pretty negative. The number of respondents who expect December corn futures to trade below $3.25 per bushel between mid July and fall 2018 is 38 percent. For soybeans, 41 percent of respondents expect November soybeans to trade below $8 per bushel before they go off the board later this fall. Seed Insights While farmers are pessimistic on the ag economy, some in the seed industry remain optimistic about the sales season ahead. “We should have adequate supply of seed to meet 2019 seed needs,” says Dave Nanda, director of genetics and technology at the Ohio-based Seed Consultants, LLC. “Most seed companies try to produce more than enough seed to meet their demands. However, with seed company mergers, supply and demand is going to fluctuate. I think there may be seed shortages of non- GMO seeds, as well as Liberty-tolerant seeds. “I see more growers shifting to Liberty-tolerant products to control glyphosate resistant weeds. Seed companies with more disease-resistant hybrids and shorter hybrids that can tolerate higher population density may gain market share.” Up in Michigan, Christine Varner, president of D.F. Seeds, LLC, shares that most growers in the area will stick to having soy- beans in their rotation. “The most progressive growers forward contracted beans in the $10.50 per bushel area, so they are sitting well,” Varner says. “Overall, I think our soybean sales will be up, driven by GT27, Liberty Link and non-GMO seed sales. In terms of production, Varner and Joe Merschman, president and CEO of Merschman Seeds, Inc., in Iowa, also expect to have adequate supplies of seed. “I expect that I will sell out of GT27 and Liberty Link seed,” Varner explains. “I expect to have inventory of R2Y at the end of the season. There is a lot of interest in planting the GT27 soy- beans, since they received Philippine approval a few weeks ago. “I expect to sell all I’m having produced. We need some con- sistent August rains to make yield on those.” Merschman agrees, saying there could be shortages of the new trait LibertyLink GT27, particularly in the Group IV maturities. “If the dicamba post application label is not renewed in November of this year, there could be tightness in LibertyLink soybeans, where weed resistance is a major problem.” Eyeing Premiums Given the commodity prices and expectations on the year ahead, farmers will be eyeing ways to increase income. “I expect that farmers will be very conscious about input costs and will be challenging their suppliers to a better price, or more value,” Merschman says. Because of this, Varner expects many growers to be look- ing at non-GMO soybeans in her area because of the premiums offered. “With the soybean prices where they’re at, if growers can make another $1.25 to $1.50 per bushel in premiums, they will do it,” she says, adding that DF does not sell many Xtend soybeans. “I expect that the national companies will get into a price war on Xtend soybeans this year, as there is a lot of production out there that they’ll need to sell. If the Environmental Protection Agency doesn’t renew the approval, a huge supply issue could arise in the soybean seed arena.” SW WHERE ON THE WEB For the complete Purdue Ag Economy Barometer report, visit ag.purdue. edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer and click on “producer sentiment plummets on price weakness and trade war concerns.” BYHOWMUCHDOYOUEXPECTYOURFARM’SNETINCOMETO DECLINEBECAUSEOFTRADECONFLICTS? 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 29% UP TO 10% 36% BETWEEN 10% AND 20 % 35% MORE THAN 20% Source:PurdueCenterforCommercialAgriculture,July2018 Of the 400 farmers surveyed in July, 35 percent expect a decline in net farm income of more than 20 percent due to trade conflicts, while another 36 percent expect net farm income to decrease somewhere between 10 and 20 percent. Christine Varner serves as president of D.F. Seeds, LLC.