WHAT WILL THE seed industry look like in 10 years? Will growers want more wheat in 2028, or will corn still reign supreme? Will CRISPR be a major player in plant breeding? It might be difficult to picture what will be hap- pening within the next decade to our industry, but the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have taken up the challenge to project the future outlook for agriculture. This spring, OECD and FAO released a collabora- tive report called the “Agricultural Outlook 2018- 2027.” In short, the report provides an assessment of the 10-year prospects for agriculture and fish commodity markets at national, regional and global levels. The report covers crops from cereals to oil- seeds and markets from meat to dairy to determine what the population will need during that time. One way the authors of this report forms their ideas is by looking at the past 10 years: agriculture has seen a strong increase in demand, particularly in animal feed and biofuels markets due to the decrease in food consumption. However, that trend upward can’t last forever. “The hike in world prices of basic grain and oilseed that culminated a few years ago has finally worn out,” says Dan Sumner, director of agricultural issues at the University of California, Davis. “We may be back on track for the previous long gradual decline in farm prices, as technology growth was faster than demand growth.” Growth rates of cereals, meat, fish and vegeta- ble oil are expected to be half the rate of the previ- ous decade. But why are economists calling for a decline in prices? According to the report, the global population growth rate is expected to fall from 1.1 percent at present to 0.9 percent in 2017. Most of the projected population growth will stem from sub-Saharan Africa and India. “Population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is accelerating in absolute terms: while the region’s population increased by 27 million in 2017, this rate will increase to 32 million extra people per year in 2027,” report the authors. Population growth is the key to understanding the potential demand for cereals. “Globally, per capita, cereals consumption increases by less than 2 percent over the coming decade,” the report notes. “This slow growth is explained in large part due to the near-saturation level of cereals consumption in many regions across the world. Per capita food consumption of cereals is expected to grow only in low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa.” Without increased cereal consumption globally, prices are expected to fall. Changing Food Pattern Along with population growth, global income plays a large part in the future of agriculture due to changes in food demand. “Notice with grain and oilseed prices getting back to normal, increased per capita quantities of livestock products will rise,” Sumner says. “This hinges on the demand growing in Africa and Asia, while Europe and much of the Americas will reduce per capita consumption of pork and beef.” Looking to the future causes anxiety about the economy, but do we really need to worry? Alex Martin amartin@issuesink.com WHAT DOES THE FUTURE SEED INDUSTRY LOOK LIKE? OF THE 44 / SEEDWORLD.COM SEPTEMBER 2018 20% is the projected growth of global agriculture and fish production. 65% of cropland planted in the Middle East and North Africa is water- thirsty cereals. < 2% is the expected growth of per capita cereal consumption in the coming decade.