BY SHAWN HACKETT, Seed World Columnist The Fertilizer Squeeze Could Change the Seed Industry for Years THROUGHOUT HISTORY, agricultural produc tion and prices have moved in tandem with geo political stability. When global trade flows freely and international rules remain predictable, fertilizer sup plies generally move efficiently and markets balance supply and demand. But when conflict disrupts trade routes, energy infrastructure and fertilizer exports, that balance begins to break down. That pattern has been unfolding since 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and the Russian invasion of Ukraine damaged agricul tural and energy infrastructure, countries and busi nesses began stockpiling fertilizer and other critical inputs. Those actions tightened supplies even further and fueled prolonged price volatility. Russia, one of the world’s largest fertilizer export ers, sharply reduced available supplies while China tightened exports to protect domestic markets. Fertilizer prices nearly tripled from pre-COVID levels before peaking in 2022, hitting countries with lim ited capital and large areas of marginal farmland the hardest. Regions including Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia saw planted acreage shrink while yields declined. Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global fertilizer markets. Shawn Hackett explores how prolonged volatility could reshape seed demand, production planning and breeding priorities over the next several years. For seed companies, fertilizer volatility influences much more than grower profitability. Higher input costs can shift crop acreage, alter seed purchasing decisions and accelerate demand for hybrids and varieties that deliver stronger performance with fewer inputs. As COVID disruptions eased and the Russia- Ukraine conflict entered a less intense phase, fertilizer exports gradually resumed and global trade flows stabilized. Why This Time Could Be Different Our historical work suggests these geopolitical cycles occur roughly every 53.5 years between major global turning points. Based on that framework, the current cycle may not reach its peak until sometime between 2028 and 2030. Events in 2026 suggest those earlier disruptions were not isolated incidents but part of a broader trend. Conflicts involving Iran, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and continued instability between Russia and Ukraine have once again constrained fer tilizer supplies, pushing prices back toward the highs reached in 2022. 28 / SEEDWORLD.COM OCTOBER 2026 A tractor applies fertilizer to a field. PHOTO: ADOBE STOCK
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