30 / SEEDWORLD.COM JANUARY 2018 WHILE AMERICAN FARMERS have become more productive, it’s become difficult to find places for grain to go, and in the upcoming year, new sources of demand for grain and struc- tural change from government will be needed, according to an agricultural economist. Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, an economic forecasting firm specializing in agriculture, says that with productivity increasing 2.9 percent annu- ally and with world population growth starting to slow, farmers will have no problem meeting the food needs for the expected world population of 9 billion in 2050. The challenge now is an oversupply of grain and finding opportunities to build the demand for that grain. “Technology is accelerating produc- tion to such levels we need to find a way to build new demand,” Basse said. At Home and Abroad In recent years, that demand has come from ethanol production. Now, Basse notes, biofuels have matured, which means that the U.S. has used as much grain as possible for ethanol, and the biofuel indus- try is now at stagnant growth. While etha- nol plants may be improving facilities, there are no new plants being built. Blended ethanol and gasoline could be sold to China, but growth in that area wouldn’t be enough to eliminate the grain overflow.  A decline in gasoline demand due to the electrification of the U.S. auto fleet doesn’t help either. Basse predicts the demand for gasoline will peak and start to decline around 2024.  The demand for U.S. exports also has decreased, and the country has lost its spot as the leading producer of grains. In the 1970s, the U.S. commanded 62 percent of the global grain trade. Now, New demands, structural changes needed to reduce oversupply of grain. Elise Brown elise.e.brown@outlook.com 2018 GLOBAL OUTLOOK that number is 28 percent. Major com- petitors include Argentina and Brazil, who are now major corn exporters. Brazil produces 3.7 billion bushels of corn, and while that number is still far from U.S. production numbers of 14 billion bushels of corn, Brazil still can cut sharply into the market. Another competitor is Russia, who is now the largest wheat exporter; 25 years ago, Russia was the world’s largest wheat importer. Basse says expansion in countries such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan would help. However, the countries’ GDPs and overall income levels may not allow for people to pay for more calories. “Until we find our next demand, we’re just sitting with supplies, waiting for a weather problem,” Basse says. But warmer oceans mean more rain for major grain growing areas like the Midwestern United States and Russia,