6 I EUROPEAN SEED I EUROPEAN-SEED.COM I f we needed any reminders, recent political events clearly show we live in a changing world and change can be rapid and unexpected. After a very divisive political campaign between remain and leave, the United Kingdom (UK) population voted in June 2016 to leave the European Union (EU) 52/48. The UK is well known as a deeply democratic country and whilst the necessary checks and balances around this referen- dum and the scope of authority between the executive gov- ernment and parliament will be tested, in the end the UK will respect the referendum result and leave the EU. This is a new concept; nobody has done it before so what is involved, and possible outcomes, are unknowable in advance. The UK government has stated its guiding principles, such as not being within the single market, customs union, jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and having domestic control over immigration from both within and outside the EU. On the other hand, the Commission, the European Parliament and EU council of member states need to also consider what type of relationship and agreements they wish to have with the UK with regard to trade and its associated legal framework. It can be expected that the EU will not wish for leaving to be an easy or painless process in order to send wider political signals. However, we will need to balance this with the mutual benefits of having a constructive relationship with a large neighbouring economy. As a result, the final shape of what Brexit means for business activity will not be clear until the areas of real align- ment and consensus between the UK and the EU begin to emerge from the highly charged political atmosphere surrounding the opening stages of the negotiation. We can have hope that the negotiators fully understand over the coming years that all countries live in a risky world and therefore in the continent of Europe, we need each other economically, culturally and militarily. This is cause for some optimism for a reasonable compromise position in the end. The only certainty we have is that this will take time. Also, the business uncertainties for agriculture and seeds resulting from the UK referendum decision will last far beyond the two year negotiating period. In the broad picture, this is complex and involves to a large extent trade, recognition of each other’s citizens’ rights and UK financial obligations towards hitherto common EU institutions and schemes. One thing very likely is that large economically vital sectors such as financial services, motor manufacturing and energy will absorb sufficient govern- ment time and resources that seeds is unlikely to figure so highly on the negotiating agenda. As a business engaged in plant breeding and seeds, our long term objectives are to be able to supply all economically attrac- tive markets with a pipeline of continuously improved varieties and high quality seed so we have to firstly consider what this means for our customers and consequently what it means for us. We know from the UK government White Paper released in February that in order to prevent a vacuum of legal frame- works that affect so many areas of activity, the UK government plans to enact a concept called ‘The Great Repeal Bill’ which basically adopts all extant EU legislation relevant to the UK into UK domestic legislation. This is a simple enough concept to ensure stability and confidence however, as always, real life is not so simple and adopting EU legislation falls roughly into three categories. •  Legislation the UK government wishes to adopt and can do so without establishing new structures. •  Legislation the UK government wishes to adopt but requires the establishment of new structures/organisa- tions to implement it. • Legislation the UK government does not wish to adopt. So, even with such a straightforward concept, there is com- plexity and practical things to consider and whilst legal frame- works are expected to function fully on day one after leaving, after the Great Repeal Bill then come issue by issue domestic legislative processes. How do we find our way through this process for agriculture and seeds? What are our possible paths? As in any business, taking a future view for strategic planning requires scenario based thinking. Trying to predict the future and gambling on having guessed right is a high-risk way to build a business plan and we can look at political pundits and pollsters’ predictions of political elections as a good example of how difficult it can be to make correct analyses even of the relatively short term. At this time therefore, we have to consider a number of possibilities surrounding key topics that have the biggest potential to impact our business. What is very relevant for our sector is the high degree to which the UK seeds market is connected internationally between the UK and other European countries. As an example, more than 99 per cent of field crops seed certified in the UK (wheat, barley and oilseed rape) originates from breeding with an equity base in EU headquartered companies. This may look very one sided to those who wish to leave the EU and a good reason why British INFLUENCING THE GREAT REPEAL BILL BREXIT - A VIEW FROM BUSINESS BY: NIGEL MOORE