Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 4422 RESEARCHERShave a mathematical model at their dis- posal, which allows them to envision what the country, and the world, might look like if a certain situation were to play out, such as differing levels of biofuel production. That’s exactly how Wally Tyner started using Purdue University’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Most recently, Tyner, a Purdue agricultural economist, and other researchers asked what the economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts would be if genetically modified organ- isms (GMOs) were banned in the United States. Knowing that 18 million farmers in 28 countries plant about 181 million hectares of GMO crops in 2014, with about 40 percent of that in the United States, they fed that data into a version the CGE model that’s designed to examine the econ- omy-wide impacts and land use consequences of agricultural, energy, trade and environmental policies. The results paint a surprising picture of what would be in store if GMOs were banned. Lower Yields, Higher Emissions “We use this model all the time, but it’s the first time we’ve used it for the GMO question,” says Tyner who co-authored the study funded by the California Grain & Feed Association. “The results really surprised us.” The results: serious yield declines, higher food prices and a major loss of forest and pasture land. Corn yield declines of 11.2 percent on average would be seen across the United States. According to the results, soybeans would lose 5.2 per- cent of their yields and cotton 18.6 percent. To make up for that loss, about 252,000 acres of forest and pasture land in the United States would have to be converted to cropland. Those results are startling, but they’re not what surprised Tyner most. The study demonstrates that if GMOs were banned in the United States, greenhouse gas emissions would increase sig- nificantly because more land would be needed for agricultural production. “When yields go down, you need more land to meet demand,” Tyner says, explaining that forest and pasture land would get converted to cropland. “That releases stored-up carbon, and so you have an increase in emissions.” In other words, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions that would come from banning GMOs in the United States would be greater than the amount needed to create enough land to meet federal mandates of about 15 billion gallons of biofuels, Tyner shares. A World Without GMOs Imagining a world without genetically modified organisms isn’t hard to do, but researchers say the prospect is detrimental to both farmers and consumers.