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12 SEEDWORLD.COM JUNE 2016 U.S. RESEARCHERS HAVE a mathematical model at their disposal which allows them to envision what the country and the world might look like if a certain situation were to play out such as differing levels of biofuel production. Thats exactly how Wally Tyner started using Purdue Universitys computable general equilibrium CGE models. Most recently Tyner a Purdue agricultural economist and other researchers asked what the economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts would be if genetically modified organisms GMOs were banned in the United States. Knowing that 18 million farmers in 28 countries planted about 181 million hectares 447 million acres of GMO crops in 2014 with about 40 percent of that in the United States they fed that data into a version the CGE model thats designed to examine the economy-wide impacts and land use consequences of agricul- tural energy trade and environmental policies. The results paint a surprising picture of what would be in store if GMOs were banned in the United States. Lower Yields Higher Emissions We use this model all the time but its the first time weve used it for the GMO question says Tyner who co-authored the study funded by the California Grain Feed Association. The results really surprised us. The results serious yield declines higher food prices and a major loss of forest and pasture land. Corn yield declines of 11.2 Imagining a world without genetically modified organisms isnt hard to do but researchers say the prospect is detrimental to both farmers and consumers. Marc Zienkiewicz percent on average would be seen across the United States according to the results and soybeans would lose 5.2 percent of their yields and cotton 18.6 percent. To make up for that loss about 252000 acres of forest and pasture land would have to be converted to cropland. Those results are startling but theyre not what surprised Tyner most. The study demonstrates that if GMOs were banned in the United States greenhouse gas emissions would increase significantly because more land would be needed for agricul- tural production. When yields go down you need more land to meet demand Tyner says explaining that forest and pasture land A WORLD WITHOUT GMOs Some of the same groups that oppose GMOs want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ... The reality of it seems to be that you cant have it both ways. Wally Tyner