14 / SEEDWORLD.COM DECEMBER 2018 FOR MOST, success doesn’t just happen; it is planned for, be it months, years or decades. For those in agriculture, knowing what’s to come in the decade ahead can help businesses better plan for success. In July, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations released its “OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook 2018- 2027” with a special focus on the Middle East and North Africa. The report it gives us a brief view at what to expect in the coming decade; how- ever, it should be noted that certain things can change the course of the outlook. “We assume stable weather conditions and no policy changes,” says Hubertus Gay, OECD trade and agriculture directorate and one of the report’s authors. “With weather fluctuations, we cannot say exactly what will happen. We also didn’t include things such as Brexit or trade issues, but the out- look is a reference point.” One of the report’s key takeaways is the shifting food patterns. In a nutshell, per capita consumption of basic staples (cere- als, roots and tubers) will stagnate, given saturation of demand. While demand growth for meat products is expected to slow, it’s on the rise for dairy products. And finally, developing countries witness accelerating growth in per capita con- sumption of sugar and vegetable oil. “The outlook indicates that population and income growth, with urbanization and dietary preferences, will drive global food demand,” says Holger Matthey, FAO economist and team lead for the Medium- term Outlook and Market Analysis. “Global food consumption, as measured by caloric availability, will rise to 3,050 calories per person per day by 2027.” Another of the report’s authors, Koen Deconinck, an OECD ag policy analyst, explains that with the exception of India and a few other developing regions, the average consumption patterns don’t show much change. However, he says strong population growth affects food patterns, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. “Even if per person consumption Seed World sits down with three authors of the latest OECD-FAO ag outlook report to get their take on the trends and what it means for the seed industry. Alex Martin amartin@issuesink.com Food Pattern Shifts doesn’t change much, total demand for food, including grain, will increase strongly,” Deconinck says. Matthey adds that while improvements in the global availability of, and access to, food are expected in the coming years, many countries will continue to be bur- dened with undernourishment and differ- ent forms of malnutrition. “We are going to see a rise in the ‘triple burden’ of malnutrition: the coexistence of food security, undernutrition and over- weight and obesity,” he says. Above: As OECD trade and agriculture directorate, Hubertus Gay is one of the report’s authors. Right: Koen Deconinck serves as an OECD ag policy analyst and was an author to the “OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook 2018-2028.”