b'Despite the rhetoric surrounding trade barriers and eco- Smoke, Mirrors and Market Realitiesnomic nationalism, Harvey is not convinced globalization isWhile tariffs have become one of the most debated weapons in reversing. the global trade arsenal, are they as impactful as headlines sug-Globalization hasnt really been turned back. If you lookgest? According to Errol Anderson, a seasoned market analyst at the big technological advancescontainers, cargo planes,and author of Errols Commodity Wire, the real story lies digitalizationtheyre all still there. Its hard to imagine therebeneath the surface.being less international trade. But we are seeing a lot moreWhen Trump announced the tariffs [the first time], political risk around the rules. markets immediately reacted. On that Sunday night, the stock market rolled over, Bitcoin went into a near-collapse, and some Least of our Worries? cryptocurrencies dropped as much as 30%. Yet, by Monday An Alberta-based seed grower says while whats happening withmorning, tensions eased, and markets rebounded, with a U.S. trade policy is a concern, such things might among be the30-day reprieve on the table. This just shows how much of this least of our worries considering how many trade barriers existtariff threat is theatre, he says.right here at home. Everything in the media is saying were going to absolutely Nick Sekulic, a seed producer and cattle rancher based intank over these tariffs, right? But nothing could be further from northwestern Alberta, doesnt mince words when it comes tothe truth. In the trade world, what comes around goes around. the challenges facing Canadian agriculture. His seed business,Global economics is a zero-sum game, and nobody has an which focuses primarily on cereals and pulses, caters to farmersadvantage anymore. The U.S. no longer holds the upper hand, in his regiona region increasingly feeling the pressures ofeven if the media tries to say otherwise. They dont.economic uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics. Anderson, who spoke at the recent Alberta-British If the crops my customers are growing are negativelyColumbia Seed Growers annual meeting in Calgary, Alta., impacted in terms of their economic value, it trickles down,believes the real issue isnt tariffs themselves, but the resources says Sekulic, who operates Prestville Farms in Rycroft. Tariffat stake. costs and resulting decreases in demand affect market values,The border? Thats just a distraction, he says. The bigger and ultimately, farmer profitability. Without profitability, farm- prize is control of resources. The U.S. wants leverage, but in a ers cant continue to invest in critical inputs like seed. world of trade wars, nobody truly wins.While recent headlines have been dominated by tariffs andThe interconnected nature of global markets ensures that trade disputes, Sekulic sees this as just one piece of a larger eco- any tariffs imposed on one country ripple across supply chains nomic puzzle. Margins in crop production are being squeezedworldwide. Anderson points to Chinas swift retaliation to from all sides, he says. Higher interest rates, equipment repairTrumps tariff threats. China slapped a tariff on crude oil, coal, costs, inflationthese are real issues. Add to that the carbonand similar tariffs on farm machinery. Theyre not going to sit tax, which is set to increase again in April, and its clear thatback. And lets not forget, China accounts for a huge portion of public policy is playing a significant role in farmers struggles. the worlds global demand, he notes.One of the key shifts Anderson highlights is the waning A Patchwork of Challenges dominance of the U.S. in global markets. When I started my One of Sekulics frustrations lies with the barriers to tradecareer, it was all about Kansas wheat. Today, its about Russia. within Canada itself.Theyve taken control of the wheat market. Power has shifted.We have this ridiculous patchwork of rules between prov- Despite the dire predictions in the media, Anderson remains inces, he says. We have a logistical nightmare because of theseskeptical of the long-term impact of tariffs. The media loves regulatory gaps. to say tariffs will tank markets, but thats far from the truth. This lack of harmonization isnt limited to agriculture.Can wheat prices go up? You betcha. Can canola prices rise, Sekulic draws a parallel to the energy sector, where interpro- even with tariffs into California? Absolutely. Markets adjust, vincial disputes over pipelines and access exacerbate Canadashe asserts.economic inefficiencies. Were importing significant amountsAs the world navigates the complexities of tariffs, Anderson of oil from abroad while sitting on excess production thatsencourages a broader perspective. What we need to focus on is trapped by a lack of infrastructure, he says. How can wethe bigger picture: demand, geopolitical shifts, and the evolv-expect to negotiate effectively with the U.S. when we canting dynamics of global trade. Tariffs may grab headlines, but even sort out trade and infrastructure issues within our owntheyre not the full story.country? In Andersons view, the Trump tariff threats are less about Despite the immediate challenges, Sekulic remains cau- economic policy and more about posturing. tiously optimistic that these struggles could lead to betterThis is about leverage, plain and simple. But markets are solutions in the futureon March 5, it was announced thatresilient. Theyll find a way, no matter what the headlines are federal, provincial, and territorial governments are imple- saying. menting a series of changes aimed at boosting the Canadian economy by $200 billion. MARCH 2025SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA 7'