b'This is a good news story for growers and for theCANOLA OUTLOOK IMPROVES ASindustry, he says. It reinforces, not just for Maizex butCHINA TARIFFS EASEBUT for other companies in the canola space as well, that this is still a dynamic marketplace going forward. UNCERTAINTY LINGERSFrom a trade policy standpoint, Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food TradeCanadas canola export outlook for 2025-26 has brightened slightly Alliance (CAFTA), explains that the reset came afterafter the tariff breakthrough between Ottawa and Beijing.deliberate decisions by both governments. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) raised its 2025-26 canola The most basic thing that changed is the Canadianexport forecast to 8.2 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from its government decided to start allowing Chinese electricDecember estimate. With no other changes to supply or demand vehicles into the country in a limited way, Harvey says.assumptions, AAFC trimmed projected ending stocks by the same China had retaliated by shutting out some of our prod- amount to 2.75 million tonnes. Even with that reduction, carryout ucts. Now both sides have adjusted. would still sit well above last years 1.597 million tonnes, pointing to For the seed sector, Harvey emphasizes that tariffa more comfortable supply situation overall.relief on canola seed was especially significant. That wasEven with the upward revision, exports are still expected to trail a huge deal for people in our sector, he says. the previous years 9.331 million tonnes, though they would remain More broadly, Harvey said the agreement restoresabout 3% above the five-year average.hope for predictability. Real stability would be theExports Laggingbut Trade Deal Offers HopeChinese government not imposing tariffs like this again,AAFC acknowledged that exports have been sluggish so far. he says.Through week 22 of the 2025-26 marketing year, Canadian canola exports were running 41% behind the pace seen a year earlier.Designing Canola for a Changing World The department said the outlook could improve as more details For Denys, renewed access to China does not changeemerge from the Canada-China agreement, which is expected Maizexs strategy, but reinforces it. The companys breedingto reduce Chinas tariff on Canadian canola seed to around 15% and product development efforts are focused on balancingstarting March 1, 2026.global market demands with on-farm realities. Chinas tariff levelsnear 85%effectively shut down seed Were addressing two things at the same time, Denysshipments since the measures were imposed in August, widely says. What importing countries are looking for in termsviewed as retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese-made electric of oil quality and end-use, and what producers need agro- vehicles.nomically. Before the dispute, China was Canadas largest canola seed buyer, That includes traits such as disease resistance, stress tol- with the market estimated at $4 billion in 2024.erance, harvestability, and pod-shatter resistanceareasPrices Steady, but the Bigger Question Remainsthat remain critical regardless of export destination. AAFC also increased its 2025-26 canola price forecast by $5/tonne, Weve got changing disease complexes that we havenow pegging the season average at $665/tonne, compared with to address with new genetics, Denys says. Its a constant$677/tonne in 2024-25.balancing act.Still, economists note that even a reduced tariff could remain a Diversification, Not Dependence barrier in a competitive global oilseed market. China can source While Chinas renewed engagement is welcome, Denyscanola from other origins without tariff costs, and its not guaranteed stresses that diversification remains essential. buyers will pay a 15% premium for Canadian supply.This situation forces Canada and other regions toWhile Chinese tariffs hit seed exports hardshipments to China diversify their trade relationships as a risk-managementreportedly fell close to zero in September and OctoberCanada strategy, he says. Thats healthy for the industry. has been shifting volumes elsewhere. Exports of canola seed to He added that while trade relationships can shift,markets outside the U.S. and China more than doubled through canolas importance to Canadian agriculture is unlikely to. October 2025, helping soften the blow.I dont think we were ever going to see a wavering inNotably, Chinas share of Canadian canola seed exports had already investment in canola, Denys said. But this certainly rein- been shrinking even before the tariffs were imposed, suggesting forces that continued investment is needed going forward.exporters were anticipating higher trade risk.MARCH 2026SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA 5'