b'that the very purpose of global agricul- policy shifts, and market access uncer- and political incentives make a rupture tural trade is changing. tainty, Shapiros advice is equal partsextraordinarily costly.He traces the modern export modelpragmatic and cold. If you get the United States and back to the postFirst World War surgeIf you can make money off ofCanada and Mexico giving up on the in productivity powered by modern fer- China, by all means, laugh your wayUSMCA, it means terrible things and tilizers and the political decision to moveto the bank, he says. Im just sayingits worst for (Canada), he says, citing an surplus calories abroad. That logic stillthat China, in the long run, is not goingeconomic analysis he describes as show-underpins trade today, he notes, point- to be a partner for us in the Westerning Canada would take the largest hit.ing out that billions of people dependHemisphere. They are actively trying toHe also points to an often-overlooked on imported food and only a fraction ofdiversify. reality: Canada is not an abstract for-countries can fully feed themselves forHe argues that China will importeign market to the United States. Its a specific crops. what it needs, but wont hesitate totop export destination for a wide swath But then comes the turn: much ofsource elsewhere, or domestically, whenof U.S. states, many with outsized influ-that dependence, he says, is a choice, andit can. He points to the gap betweenence in electoral politics. That domestic a choice some governments are reversing. promised and delivered purchases in apressure, he argues, acts as a constraint These countries are actually tryingprior U.S.-China farm trade frameworkeven on populist impulses.to grow their own food and reduce theiras an example of how commitments canFor Canadian seed leaders, the imports, Shapiro says. He offers exam- fade once immediate needs are met. takeaway is not relax. Its: prepare for ples meant to puncture complacency:For the seed sector, thats less a moralvolatility without assuming collapse and Ethiopia boosting wheat output quicklylecture than a risk-management memo:build contingency plans for logistics, after investing in machinery and seedtreat China as opportunistic revenue, notregulatory friction, and episodic market technology; Brazil pushing into cropsdependable strategy. closures. and experimenting with tropical wheat; China and India grinding for yield andCUSMA: Melodrama, Yes. Catastrophe if self-sufficiency. it BreaksWhether or not every exampleShapiros view of North American trade becomes a trendline, the implication forwas more optimistic, but only because seed is clear: if more countries pursuethe downside is so severe.productivity at home, the easiest exportHe predicts all kinds of melo-growth disappears first. Demand doesntdrama in the coming months around a vanish, but the well just ship moreCUSMA/USMCA renegotiation surplus assumption weakens, especially and still expects the deal to con-for bulk commodities. tinue, largely because supply chains China: Laugh Your Way to the Bank but Dont Build a Future on itFor Canadian firms that have spent years navigating Chinese demand signals, MARCH 2026SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA 15'