b'ARCTIC STRATEGY, TRADE WARS AND THE FUTURE OF PRAIRIE FARMINGACCORDING TO PETER MANSBRIDGEPeter Mansbridge connects climate change, northern security and China-Canada trade relations to the long-term competitiveness of Canadas seed and grain sectors.By Marc ZienkiewiczVETERAN BROADCASTER Peter Mansbridge used a sweeping,For the seed industry, the subtext matters: market access can blunt-edged keynote at the recent CropConnect Conference inbe regained, but it may come tied to broader industrial policy Winnipeg to argue that Canadian agriculture, especially theand geopolitics, not just phytosanitary rules or quality specs.canola sector, is now sitting at the centre of national politics,Mansbridge also highlights the importance of provincial global trade realignment, and a fast-changing security debate inalignment when Ottawa makes trade moves that ripple across the Arctic. sectors.His message to an industry built on exports was clear: theFor that to happen, people had to be on side, he says, rules of the game are shifting, and Canada cant afford to treatdescribing premiers moving, sometimes reluctantly, toward a trade corridors, market access, or climate impacts as back- common front.ground noise.Things have changed, Mansbridge says. Our greatestMark Carneys Trade Reset: A Gamble with Real friend has become our greatest problem. Consequences for ExportersMansbridge argues that Prime Minister Mark Carney has Canada-U.S. Relations: Why Ag is Watching Washington Moresignaled a sharper break from past assumptions about Canadas Closely than Ever place in North American trade.For decades, Canadian agriculture operated on an assumption:He was making it clear that the relationship as we had the Canada-U.S. relationship would remain stable enough thatknown it with the United States was over, Mansbridge says. exporters could plan around it. Mansbridge tells his audiencesWe were going a different route.that assumption is now unsafe. He didnt sell the shift as painless.I cant remember since the Second World War any foreignIts a gamble, he says. There are risks, and people should leader having the kind of impact on what we think aboutbe very clear about that.ourselves than Donald Trump, he says, describing a climate of uncertainty that is pushing Canadians and policymakers into aThe Arctic, Climate Change and Sovereignty:faster rethink of trade and sovereignty. Why it Matters to AgricultureMansbridge points to consumer behavior as an early indica- Mansbridge connects climate change to a new geopolitical real-tor of political change translating into economic effects. ity: the Arctic is opening, and that is changing national security Canadians arent going [to the U.S.] in the numbers theypriorities and trade route thinking.used to go, he said. Were buying Canadian instead. He also calls out the contradiction of Trump dismissing For agriculture, the implication is bigger than tourism orclimate change while pursuing Arctic ambitions.retail patriotism: if political friction starts influencing procure-ment, border administration, or regulatory alignment, com-modities and seed supply chains feel it quickly.Canola and China: Market Access Returns, but Politics Stays AttachedMansbridge framed the recent Canada-China thaw as a reminder that canola is not just a cropits leverage. The outcome, he argued, was a political trade- Mansbridge calls out the contradiction of off that reopened the door,Trump dismissing climate change while at least partially. pursuing Arctic ambitions.34 SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA MARCH 2026'