b'Comparative research shows U.S. farmers surpassing Brazil,Biofuels Are the Only Meaningful Outlet for Argentina, Russia and Ukraine in operating and overhead costs.GrowthMeanwhile, Brazil continues to expand acreage, yields, crushBasse was clear about where he sees the opportunity.capacity and infrastructure. I dont see another way for the U.S. government to do Modeling would show that somewhere in the next four toanything but burn it, he says. Biofuels are our best aspect five years, Brazil will reach 200 million metric tons of soybeans,going forward.Basse says. Renewable diesel continues to expand. Crush demand For U.S. seed companies, this shift affects long-term productremains strong. And E15 represents one of the few policy positioning, farmer profitability and demand for hybrids and vari- levers that can materially shift corn markets.eties that deliver performance under tightening margins. E15 would increase U.S. corn demand about 2.6 billion bushels annually, Basse says. It would give us another Brazils Growth Is Shaping the Competitive Landscape three to five years of demand pull.Basse notes that Brazils soybean yield now outpaces the U.S.Even so, scaling requires time, certainty and political average and that its investment in rail lines, export channels andalignment.inland crush plants is accelerating. The nation plants roughly 300 million acres and often captures two or even three cropsThe Corn Belt Is Moving, and Product Strategy per acre. For seed companies, that scale and efficiency resetMust Move With Itglobal reference points for productivity. Basse highlighted another trend with big implications As Brazil races forward, farmers weigh seed value through afor seed companies. The center of U.S. corn production sharper lens. Genetic packages must deliver more yield stabilityis shifting west. Wetter cycles, agronomic pressure and and efficiency to stay competitive in a market where every extrachanges in yield performance are pushing more produc-bushel matters. tion into the Plains.That shift affects breeding priorities, trait packages Global Trade Is Realigning Around Two Power Centers and agronomic support. Heat tolerance, water use effi-Beyond cost and supply, Basse warned that trade flows areciency, standability and disease profiles look different being reshaped by geopolitics as much as economics. Hewest of the traditional Corn Belt. He says seed companies described a global landscape coalescing around Washingtonmay need to recalibrate placement and R&D strategies as and Beijing, with other regions pulled into the gravity of thosethe geography of U.S. corn evolves.competing agendas.For the seed industry, that realignment could influence germ- The Market Already Sees Whats Comingplasm movement, phytosanitary access, research partnershipsBasse ended with one of the most striking visuals of the and long-term market potential. It adds another layer of uncer- morning. Corn and soybean futures for 2026, 2027 and tainty for companies that depend on predictable, cross-border2028 all trade at nearly identical levels.collaboration. Theyre the same, he says. The market sees the Basse addressed todays tariff-driven environment directly. same structure that we just talked about.I would like to tell all of you in the room that tariffs are work- With global supply heavy and demand stagnant, the ing for American agriculture, but at least at this point in our datamarket is signaling three straight years of break-even sets, we cant see that happening, Basse says. pricing.U.S. export share has slipped from 52% of global grain tradeThe market knows its giving farmers for the next in 1979 to 16% today. Tariffs may help chip away at some non- three years a break even price that is unchanged, he tariff barriers, but the broader trade landscape is not swingingadds.back toward the United States. Basse didnt offer easy answers, but he offered clarity. Oversupply is real. Competitors are expanding. Policy will Without a Demand Driver, Margins Stay Flat matter as much as agronomics. Biofuels offer the clearest Basse showed long-term revenue patterns for corn and soybeanpath to renewed demand. And global agriculture is reor-farmers. Profitability only spikes when a demand engine arrives. ganizing in ways that will shape seed markets for years.I dont have that demand driver today, he says. If we lookFor seed companies, the message is direct. Product for the next cycle, we need to have a demand driver behind thedevelopment, pricing strategy and farmer support must markets to have that happen. reflect an environment where margins are thin, global Today, theres only one area with enough scale to matter. rivals are aggressive and certainty is rare. The next decade will reward those who plan early, adjust quickly and build resilience into every part of their business.SWJANUARY 2026SEEDWORLD.COM /13'