b'Dan Basse Warns the Seed Industry About a Future Defined by Abundance, Pressure and Policy At the ASTA Field Crop Seed Convention,AT THE ASTAField Crop Seed Convention, longtime econo-longtime economist Dan Basse tells seedmist Dan Basse tells seed leaders that global grain supplies are at record highs, demand is flattening and American farmers leaders that global grain supplies are atare becoming the high-cost producer. The path forward, he says, record highs, demand is flattening andwill hinge on biofuels, policy and a world realigning around two competing power centers.American farmers are becoming thehigh-cost producer.The World Is Changing Faster Than Anyone Can TrackDan Basse opened his 13th ASTA keynote with a simple truth. By Aimee Nielson, Seed World U.S. Editor Markets are shifting fast, crop yields keep climbing and global forces are reshaping agriculture at a pace that feels almost impossible to follow.I cant wake up in the morning anymore and not have some-thing that just jumps out at me, he says. AI cant come fast enough, because my staff cant process all the changes that are happening in the world.For Basse, this isnt a future scenario. Its the economic back-drop farmers and seed companies are operating in right now.A World Awash in Grain with Demand Thats Running Out of SteamBasse walked the room through record global output driven by good weather, rising yields and aggressive expansion in South America and the Black Sea.This year, the world produced an extra 91 million metric tons of supply, or the equivalent of 3.3 billion bushels of grain. It was a record.Yet demand is no longer matching that growth. Wheat con-sumption is leveling off. Per capita corn use has flattened. Even China, which powered soybean growth for decades, is no longer increasing imports.China structurally is now what we would call a mature market for agricultural products, Basse says. We believe their import demand has plateaued.Without a new driver, he says global demand is not keeping pace with global output.The United States Is Becoming the High-cost ProducerBasse then delivered one of the most sobering observations of the morning.Today, American farmers are at the place of being the least AgResource founder Dan Basse addresses the ASTA crowd. competitive in the world, the high-cost producer, he says.12/ SEEDWORLD.COMJANUARY 2026'