b'squeeze would be far worse than whatcompanies work across an enormous crop were already feeling. range, from small family firms to global multinationals. To illustrate the complex-Productivity Slowsand With it,ity of modern seed production, he points Competitiveness to one example: tomato seed.For two decades, productivity growthFrom the first breeding cross to the helped mask structural challenges inmoment it reaches a North American Canadian agriculture. Between 1991farmer, a single tomato variety may and 2010, productivity rose by roughlytravel across borders six or seven times. 2% per yearan exceptional pace,It can be bred in one country, bulked in driven by better genetics, improved farmanother, cleaned and tested in a third, management, the adoption of zero-tillrouted through a processing centre in systems and more precise use of fertilizerthe U.S. or the Netherlands, and then and other inputs. re-exported. Since then, the trajectory has shifted.When expanded across 80 to 90 From 2011 to 2020, productivity growthspecies and more than 150 countries, slowed to about 1.4% per year. Lookingthe number of regulatory and logistical ahead to 2030, Klemmer expects it tohurdlestariffs, phytosanitary meas-Sam Crowell of the American Seed Tradedecline further, likely landing near 1%ures, biotech rules, intellectual property Association knows how internationallyor even lower. Those numbers translaterequirements, variety registration, seed integrated the seed sector truly is.into real money. At todays pace of aboutcertificationis staggering.0.8% annual growth, billions in poten- International seed movement was tial farm income will be left unrealized.complicated before tariffs started domi-Returning to the 1.4% growth ratesnating the conversation, Crowell says.of a decade ago would add roughly $18A year ago, not many people had billion in additional returns across thefully internalized how important sector by 2030. Reaching 2% again tariff-free seed movement is globally, or the benchmark achieved in the 1990santicipated that tariffs would feature so and early 2000swould unlock aroundprominently in our daily work as a seed $30 billion in extra revenue, equivalentsector, he says. Now the discussion is to roughly $125,000 to $150,000 in newunavoidable.income per farm. Through the use of the International Thats transition capital for agingEmergency Economic Powers Act farms, Klemmer says. Thats money(IEEPA), the U.S. president has imposed for new equipment, new genetics andtariffs through executive orders that have sustainability practices. Its the differencevarying scopes, coverage, and policy between playing defense and playingobjectives. There is currently no formal offense. exclusion process, meaning that com-His broader concern is competitive- panies seeking relief must navigate the Craig Klemmer of Farm Credit Canada notesness. Slower productivity gains make itadministration on a case-by-case basis. modern plant breeding and seed technologiesmore difficult for Canadian farmers toThrough the first half of 2025, tariffs contribute more than $5 billion in economickeep pace with international rivals inwere raised, lowered, or withdrawn with activity and roughly $2.4 billion to Canadas GDP, supporting close to 17,000 jobs. export markets, particularly in grainslittle notice. As multiple tariff authorities and oilseeds. It also leaves the sectorcan overlap, companies must be careful more exposed to the volatility of extremeon staying up to date on the latest policy. and growth in the Canadian economy inweather, which has intensified in recentAs of press time, tariff rates on plant-a single act. years. ing seeds imported into the United States He also argues that innovations invary from 10% to over 50%.plant science have helped hold downA Global Industry Meets a Tariff Wall Even within North America, where food prices. Without the past severalIf Canada faces a lagging productivitythe USMCA/CUSMA agreement still decades of plant breeding and crop pro- curve, the United States is navigatingoffers duty-free treatment for qualifying tection advancements, he estimates thatother challenges: a rapidly shifting tradeseed, the burden of proof has risen. If a Canadian grocery bills would be 25% toenvironment that is imposing new risks. shipment cannot clearly demonstrate it 65% higher.Crowell, who serves as ASTAs leadwas grown and harvested in the U.S., At a time when food inflation ison trade issues, notes that many stake- Canada or Mexico, customs officials may already squeezing households, thatholders do not truly appreciate howapply higher rest-of-world rates.difference is not theoretical, he says.internationally integrated the seed sectorWill tariffs affect seed movement? Without plant science innovations, thetruly is. ASTAs nearly 700 memberCrowell asks. They already are. 22 SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA JANUARY 2026'