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16 THEtrade body for Britains agricultural supply industry known as Ag Industries Confederation AIC assessed the risks and opportunities to farming in the United Kingdom. The study found that single-issue pol- icy-making within the UK and Europe is reducing Britains ability to achieve its objective of producing more from less. Titled Food Supply in the Balance the reports shows an imbalance between opportunities and threats in British agri- culture that in economic terms could be as much as 5.9 billion. The AIC calls on policymakers to address this imbalance by working with industry to develop adequate modelling that ensures the cumulative effects of regulation are taken into account and are based on sound data. Conducted during the past two years the study investigated the organizations assertion that policy decisions were being made without an understanding of the cumulative effects. Independent business analysts from the Anderson Centre were commissioned to develop a way to investigate the cumulative effects of the opportunities and threats. According to AIC the research drew on experts from dozens of academic commercial and trade organizations to identify the major opportunities and threats to UK farm output over the next 15 years which ranged from animal disease and environmental controls to market volatility. The report iden- tified 10 key threats including six that arise from increased regulation. Looking at the wheat sector analysts identified opportuni- ties as new technology and advanced genetics and threats as reduced pesticide availability resistant weeds and limits to fertilizer efficiency. The study estimated that Britains wheat production might meet only half of its full potential between now and 2030 if cumulatively the UK agricultural industry bears all the consequences of the threats without benefitting from any of the opportunities offered by new technology. TheRisksofRegulation Given that the threats far outweigh the opportunities in this study we believe that our estimates are very conservative says David Caffall AIC chief executive. These indicative numbers support the initial concern of the AIC board. They make it clear that there is a need for the whole industry to take the challenges discovered in this report seriously. From Theory to Practice Yorkshire farmer Paul Temple says the study underscores a fundamental problem facing producers following the European Commissions ban on three types of neonicotinoid insecticides in 2013. When the European Union banned farmers from using an important pesticide a year and a half ago it confirmed the law of unintended consequences he says. As a result Im applying more pesticides with less efficiency or precision. Thats bad for the environment increases cost and puts food supply at risk. This is what happens when regulators make decisions based on the emotional need to do something rather than on what science tells us. Temple who chaired two workshops that contributed to the AIC report says Farming has and will rise to the chal- lenge of producing safe and affordable food however that success has created inexpensive food whose production is neither understood nor properly valued. Modifying methods of production by banning products without the benefit of science and through thoughtless regulation upsets a delicate balance of supply on a large scale. Thats the power behind the new AIC report the economic modelling behind the figures have a robustness that hasnt been put into practise before and properly show the serious consequence of policymakers getting it wrong. A reliable food supply and a healthy environment require the same things an economically sustainable farm business and the proper engagement of good science. ... Too many of our regulations are threats to both. Mark Halsall A new report by the Ag Industries Confederation in the United Kingdom maintains flawed policy-making and increased restrictions on farmers are among the factors keeping British agriculture from meeting its full potential.