The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the latest Crop Production report forecasting corn production at 15.2 billion bushels.
This represents a slight increase of less than 1% from the previous forecast, though it is a 1% decrease compared to last year. Meanwhile, soybean production is expected to reach 4.58 billion bushels, an increase of 10% over 2023.
As of October 1, corn yields are projected to average 183.8 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.2 bushels from the prior forecast and 6.5 bushels higher than in 2023. The area harvested for corn grain remains at 82.7 million acres, consistent with the previous forecast.
For soybeans, the October 1 conditions suggest an average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, a minor decrease of 0.1 bushel from the last forecast but up 2.5 bushels from last year. The soybean harvest area in the U.S. is expected to cover 86.3 million acres, unchanged from earlier projections but a 5% increase over 2023.
The report also provides a forecast for U.S. cotton production, estimated at 14.2 million 480-pound bales. This is down 2% from the previous forecast but up 18% from last year. Yields are projected to average 789 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting an 18-pound decrease from the prior forecast and a 110-pound decrease from 2023. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast but up 16% from last year. Pima cotton is forecast at 516,000 bales, down 6% from the previous forecast but up 63% from last year. The harvested cotton area remains at 8.63 million acres, consistent with the previous forecast and a 34% increase from 2023.
To develop these forecasts, NASS conducted objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans between September 24 and October 7. These surveys, conducted in the main producing states representing roughly 75% of U.S. production, involved revisiting selected plots to obtain current counts. Additionally, about 7,500 producers were contacted via telephone, mail, internet, and in-person to report expected yields. The Crop Production report is updated monthly and can be accessed online at nass.usda.gov/Publications.
