Report details a balancing act of rising yields, export challenges and structural changes
Rabobank’s annual 10-Year Outlook on U.S. Grain and Oilseeds is now available, offering a detailed analysis of where U.S. corn, wheat and soybean markets may be headed through 2033/34.
Some key insights of the report include:
Export Dynamics: U.S. corn and soybean exports are set to increase over the coming years, while wheat exports are expected to remain stagnant. As production continues to rise, the US will need to rely on exports to balance supply and demand. However, competition from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia will intensify, challenging U.S. market share.
Acreage Trends: U.S.-planted corn and soybean acres will continue a downward trend, with combined acres remaining below the 180 million mark. All three major crops will stay under 230 million acres due to lower prices and compressed margins discouraging expansion.
Price Forecasts: Farmgate prices are predicted to ease from the highs of 2021/22, driven by increased production from rising yields. However, soybean prices might buck this trend, potentially rising due to new crushing capacity, which could increase competition for acreage and drive up prices across the board.
Scenario Analysis: The report examines two critical scenarios that could disrupt the baseline model—lower-than-expected US corn exports and reduced corn and soybean yields. These scenarios highlight the significant variability in the corn balance sheet and underscore the importance of strategic planning for stakeholders.
Rabobank’s proprietary baseline model underpins all data and results in this report, offering a comprehensive view of potential market trends and their implications for the sector.
For more information and to access the full report, visit https://www.rabobank.com/.
