The United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) has released projections relating to the number of crop calories required to feed the global population in 2050.
The projections are divided according to population growth projections:
Under a low population growth scenario (whereby the global population reaches 8.73 billion by 2050), ERS researchers project that the production of food will have to increase to 12,740 trillion crop calories by 2050, an increase of 33% over a 2011 baseline.
Under a medium population growth scenario (whereby the global population reaches 9.75 billion by 2050), ERS researchers project that the production of food will have to increase to 14,060 trillion crop calories by 2050, an increase of 47% over a 2011 baseline.
Under a high population growth scenario (whereby the global population reaches 10.8 billion by 2050), ERS researchers project that the production of food will have to increase to 15,410 trillion crop calories by 2050, an increase of 61% over a 2011 baseline.
Crop calories are the total calories available from crops. Crop calories can either be consumed directly or, if fed to animals, are then consumed as meat, dairy products and eggs. Crop calories are a baseline measure of the size of global agricultural capacity.
The caloric estimates assumed that, as per capita incomes continue to rise in many parts of the world, people will increase their quantity of overall daily calories and will increase their consumption of animal products.
The research was originally published in a USDA ERS report released in September.
