Global warming is already transforming daily life, with storms, floods, wildfires, and droughts affecting regions worldwide. As temperatures rise, a third of global food production could be at risk. A new study in Nature Food provides a clearer picture of where and how warming will impact food production.
Researchers at Aalto University examined how future changes in temperature, precipitation, and aridity will affect the growing conditions of 30 major food crops globally. They found that low-latitude regions will face far worse consequences than mid- or high-latitude areas.
Depending on the level of warming, up to half of crop production in low-latitude regions could be at risk as climate conditions become unsuitable. These areas will also experience a significant reduction in crop diversity, according to a press release.
“The loss of diversity means that the range of food crops available for cultivation could decrease significantly in certain areas. That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein,” says Sara Heikonen, the doctoral researcher who led the study.
Up to Half of Global Food Crop Production May Be Affected
Warming will significantly reduce the global cropland available for staple crops — such as rice, maize, wheat, potato, and soybean — which provide more than two-thirds of the world’s food energy. Additionally, tropical root crops like yam, essential for food security in low-income regions, along with cereals and pulses, are especially vulnerable. In sub-Saharan Africa, the region most affected, nearly three-quarters of current production could be at risk if global temperatures rise by more than 3°C, according to Heikonen.
In contrast, mid- and high-latitude regions are likely to maintain overall productive land, although the suitability for specific crops may shift. These areas are also expected to experience an increase in crop diversity.
“For example, the cultivation of temperate fruits, such as pears, could become more common in more northerly regions,” says Heikonen.
However, even if climatic conditions are favourable, other factors could hamper agriculture in these areas, says the study’s senior author, Professor Matti Kummu.
“We showed that there’s climatic potential but, for example, warming might bring new pests and extreme weather events, which our model doesn’t include. So, the situation isn’t really that black and white.”
Options for Adaptation and Mitigation
Many low-latitude regions most at risk from warming are already vulnerable in multiple ways, facing challenges with food security and lacking the resilience of northern countries due to economic and systemic factors. However, Kummu believes there are ways these regions could, at least partially, rise to the challenge.
“In many low latitude areas, especially in Africa, the yields are small compared to similar areas elsewhere in the world. They could get higher yields with access to fertilisers and irrigation as well as reducing food losses through the production and storage chain. However, ongoing global warming will add a lot of uncertainty to these estimates and probably even more actions are needed, such as crop selection and novel breeding,’ he says. ‘But I always say that the modelling and analysis is the easy part –– understanding how to make the changes happen is the hardest part.”
While policymakers in low-latitude countries should focus on addressing existing gaps, farmers and policymakers in mid- and high-latitude regions need more flexibility, according to Kummu. Warming is expected to alter crop production in these areas, and additional changes will arise from the various pressures on the global food system. Adapting to these shifts will require the ability to adjust as the impacts of climate change unfold.
“If we want to secure our food system in the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects,” says Heikonen. “Even if the biggest changes are in equatorial regions, we will all feel the effects through the globalised food system. We need to act together to address these problems.”
