Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) is leading a £2 million initiative aimed at preventing food shortages that could potentially trigger civil unrest in the UK.
The project, titled Backcasting to Increase Food System Resilience in the UK, is spearheaded by experts from ARU’s Global Sustainability Institute and has received £2,048,461 in funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
Building on recent research that shows over 40% of food experts believe widespread civil unrest linked to food shortages — such as demonstrations and violent looting — could occur in the UK within the next decade, the project seeks to address critical vulnerabilities in the nation’s food supply.
The UK’s food system is currently designed for efficiency rather than resilience, heavily dependent on imports, seasonal labor, and just-in-time supply chains. This makes it vulnerable to disruptions that could lead to a collapse, where the public loses access to affordable food, resulting in economic losses, disease outbreaks, extreme hunger, malnutrition, or civil unrest.
Potential causes of a collapse in the UK’s food system include global geopolitical instability and conflict, pandemics, extreme weather events worsened by climate change, and trade tariffs.
The project seeks to identify and mitigate potential tipping points that could lead to such a collapse, while prioritizing areas within the UK food system that urgently need to enhance their resilience to likely risks and shocks.
To achieve these objectives, researchers will collaborate closely with key stakeholders, including food producers, importers, distributors, and retailers.
A “backcasting” mapping exercise will be conducted to identify the most probable pathways to civil unrest, focusing on addressing issues at the early stages of these pathways, well before unrest occurs.
Anglia Ruskin University is leading the project in partnership with experts from the University of York, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the University of the West of England, and the Royal Agricultural University.
Other partners include WTW, the Food Farming & Countryside Commission, the Food Ethics Council, WRAP, DEFRA, Trussell, Sustain, Better Food Traders, Samworth Brothers, the Food Standards Agency, the Institute of Grocery Distributors and WWF, according to a press release.
“The Backcasting to Increase Food System Resilience in the UK project is a major investment into understanding how future shocks could significantly impact the UK food system and how we can build resilience to these,” said Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University (ARU).
“The food system is exposed to various risks from climate change and biodiversity loss to geopolitical events, such as wars or cyberterrorism. Supporting the UK’s food system stakeholders from farmers through to retail, by working with them to build on their knowledge to deliver a transformation towards resilience, is vital.
“The project will also involve placements inside organisations focusing on food system challenges, to better understand the interventions that may be possible, and allow wider lessons to be captured and shared. These placements will be open to PhDs from across the UK and will be announced in 2026.”
