A pioneering study published in the INFORMS Journal of Transportation Science sheds light on the profound and widespread impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on global food security.
The research underscores the pressing need to tackle disruptions in the transportation of Ukrainian grains, which have led to significant price increases and exacerbated food insecurity worldwide, especially in regions like the Middle East and North Africa that are particularly vulnerable, according to a press release from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Science.
“The war has caused massive disruptions in Ukraine’s grain exports, with Black Sea ports — vital for the global grain trade — becoming largely inaccessible due to the ongoing conflict,” says Anna Nagurney, professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “This has significantly threatened food supply chains worldwide, especially those that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain exports.”
The study, titled “A Multiperiod, Multicommodity, Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime,” also emphasizes the sharp rise in food prices. Prior to the invasion, grain was priced at approximately $270 per ton, but this figure has almost doubled, reaching up to $500 per ton in some countries. This steep increase has further strained the ability of people in these regions to afford food, intensifying the ongoing food insecurity crisis.
“For many families, rising prices mean that basic staples are becoming unaffordable, pushing more people into hunger,” says Dana Hassani, Ph.D. student at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
The study emphasizes the urgent need for alternative transportation routes.
“With traditional shipping routes blocked by the war, there is an immediate need to develop new ways to transport grain and other essential goods to prevent further disruptions. Without these new routes, global food shortages could become even more severe in the coming months,” says Nagurney, the Eugene M. Isenberg Chair in Integrative Studies; Ph.D. Coordinator in Operations Management; Director of Virtual Center for Supernetworks; Operations & Information Management Department of the Isenberg School of Management at UMass Amherst.
The impact of the Russian invasion is also being profoundly felt by Ukrainian farmers. Before the invasion, Ukrainian farmers earned around $270 per ton of grain. However, due to disruptions in production, transportation, and storage caused by the invasion, their earnings dropped to just $100 per ton for two consecutive harvest seasons — below production costs. In contrast, farmers in the U.S. and EU saw record profits, the highest in over two decades. Overall, the invasion has led to agricultural economic losses of approximately $70 billion, with a third of the capital in the sector destroyed. This sharp decline in earnings is placing immense pressure on Ukraine’s agricultural economy, deepening the challenges exacerbated by the conflict.
Ukraine urgently needs greater international cooperation to address the global food crisis. The study calls on governments and organizations worldwide to collaborate and find solutions that can help stabilize the global food supply, ensuring that people in food-insecure regions have access to the nutrition they need.