As Donald Trump took the oath of office, we could only watch and speculate on what the future held. Would his tariff threats come to fruition? And what would we do if they did?
Well, it seems we can breathe a sigh of relief, for the time being. Trump is not imposing the tariffs today, according to reports. But we’d be foolish to continue on as usual.
No matter what unfolds now, the future will be shaped by the unpredictable impulses of the man who is now president.
Much has already been said about Trump’s disregard for convention, his erratic policymaking, and his “America First” rhetoric. But amid the theatrics is a stark reality for Canada: our economic relationship with the U.S. is about to undergo profound changes, and the agricultural sector—including our own industry—is not immune.
Trade Under Threat
Trade is a cornerstone of Canada’s economic integration with the U.S., and has been a frequent target of Trump’s rhetoric. He called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) “the worst trade deal ever made” and vowed to renegotiate its terms to better serve American interests, which he did. For industries that rely heavily on cross-border trade, any disruption to the current United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (CUSMA) could have serious consequences.
Exports of seeds, grains, and other agricultural products flow freely between Canada and the U.S. under the current agreement. Tariffs, border delays, or increased regulatory divergence—all possible outcomes of a trade renegotiation—could raise costs and reduce competitiveness for Canadian producers. The U.S. is Canada’s largest agricultural trading partner; any barriers to this relationship would be felt most in rural communities.
Regulatory Divergence
Trump’s administration is likely to take a more laissez-faire approach to regulation, particularly in agriculture. This could widen the gap between Canadian and American regulatory standards, creating challenges for harmonization and market access between the countries. Differences in biotechnology approvals, pesticide regulations, and labeling requirements could place Canadian seed at a disadvantage when exporting to the U.S. or competing with American products.
Canada has traditionally aligned closely with U.S. standards, but if the Trump administration begins dismantling key regulatory frameworks, Canada will face a choice: follow suit or risk further instability. Neither option is ideal. The former risks compromising Canadian values around sustainability and public health, while the latter risks creating barriers to trade.
Climate Policy in Retreat
One of the most significant shifts under Trump will be in climate policy. Trump has dismissed climate change and pledged to withdraw from agreements related to it. This retreat from global climate commitments could have indirect but significant consequences for those who take sustainability seriously.
Canadian producers have been investing in “climate-smart” agriculture, including drought-resistant crops and sustainable farming practices, to meet both market demands and environmental goals. If the U.S. abandons similar efforts, it could undermine these investments by creating an uneven playing field. The lack of coordinated climate action could worsen the environmental challenges—from extreme weather to soil degradation—that we already grappling with.
The Silver Lining
It’s not all doom and gloom. Trump’s emphasis on infrastructure spending could boost demand for agricultural products, including seeds, as rural economies benefit from improved transportation networks. Similarly, a shift toward bilateral trade agreements could possibly give Canada an opportunity to negotiate terms more favourable to its agricultural sector, provided it can navigate the high-stakes unpredictability of Trump’s deal-making style.
Trump’s focus on reducing corporate taxes and regulations could spur innovation in the private sector, including seed technology, if they come to fruition. However, the benefits of these changes will depend on how Canada positions itself in response. Our regulatory system has a lot to do with that. How quickly Canadian seed developers are able to bring their innovations to market will be key.
The Canadian seed industry must remain vigilant as Trump’s presidency unfolds. Industry leaders should actively engage with policymakers to ensure that Canada’s interests are represented in any trade negotiations. They should also invest in diversifying export markets to reduce dependence on the U.S. and explore opportunities for collaboration with other countries committed to the sustainability of agriculture.
In the end, we must adapt to a new geopolitical reality—one defined by uncertainty, rapid change, and the potential for disruption. Trump’s inauguration is not just a symbolic moment; it marks the beginning of a new era in North American relations, one that will demand resilience, foresight, and adaptability.
